Kenya’s monthly domestic exports to the US jumped to a record Sh10.5 billion in March after President Donald Trump renewed the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), restoring duty-free access and reversing the threat of new tariffs on Kenyan goods.
The rebound followed months of uncertainty after Trump announced tariffs on imports from 180 countries, including a 10 percent duty on Kenyan products that was set to take effect when Agoa expired at the end of September last year.
Latest data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows exports to the US rose sharply from Sh6.7 billion in February, making March’s value the highest monthly earning ever recorded.
The surge offers fresh relief to exporters after months of uncertainty following the expiry of the Agoa arrangement last September before its renewal in February 2026.
According to Ken Gichinga, chief economist at Mentoria Economics, the March spike largely reflected a release of export orders and shipments that had accumulated during the months when Kenyan firms faced uncertainty over continued duty-free market access.
“The retroactive Agoa extension removed the uncertainty overhang for many exporters, especially textile and apparel. Exporters could now confidently fulfill larger orders knowing duty-free treatment was back,” says Mr Gichinga.
“Also, exporters are likely front-loading shipments ahead of any future policy risks. Agoa’s short extension to December 2026 means uncertainty returns soon.”
Agoa grants eligible African countries duty-free access to the US market for thousands of products, with Kenya remaining among the programme’s biggest beneficiaries, especially in textiles and apparel exports.
The latest renewal has eased fears among exporters and manufacturers who had warned that expiry of the programme would trigger factory closures, job losses and cancelled export contracts across Kenya’s export processing zones.
Kenya’s textile and apparel sector remains the single largest beneficiary of Agoa, supplying American retailers with garments, jeans, uniforms and fashion products manufactured in local export processing zones.
The sector supports hundreds of thousands of jobs, with factories concentrated mainly in Nairobi, Athi River, Mombasa and other export processing zones.
In the months to the September expiry, government officials had intensified lobbying efforts in Washington amid concerns that prolonged uncertainty around the agreement would weaken Kenya’s competitiveness against Asian textile manufacturing countries.
Besides garments, Kenya exports farm produce including coffee, tea, macadamia, fruits, vegetables, cut flowers and processed agricultural products to the US market under the Agoa arrangement.
The US remains one of Kenya’s most important export destinations outside Africa, providing critical foreign exchange earnings at a time the country continues battling a widening trade imbalance.
Trade between Nairobi and Washington has also increasingly become strategically important as Kenya pushes to diversify export markets beyond traditional destinations such as Uganda, Pakistan and the European Union.
The renewed agreement has revived optimism among manufacturers that Kenya could attract fresh investment from global firms seeking lower-cost export bases targeting the American consumer market.
The fresh export momentum comes as Kenya continues separate negotiations with Washington for a broader bilateral trade agreement that officials hope could eventually replace Agoa.
Kenya’s export processing zones have, over the years, become heavily dependent on the US market, making the textile sector particularly vulnerable to changes in Washington’s trade policy direction.
Kenya has been pushing for expanded market access covering additional sectors including agriculture, mining, fisheries and value-added manufacturing as part of efforts to deepen commercial ties with the US.
The discussions had initially started during Trump’s earlier administration before slowing under subsequent policy changes and uncertainty around Washington’s broader trade approach toward African economies.
