South Africa’s rand, stocks, and government bonds strengthened on Wednesday following data that revealed a sharp increase in inflation for April.
This has heightened expectations that the central bank may raise interest rates at its upcoming monetary policy meeting.
The rand was trading at 16.5950 against the dollar, reflecting a gain of about 0.7% from its previous close.
Headline inflation rose to 4.0% year-on-year in April, up from 3.1% in March, marking the highest level since August 2024.
This increase was primarily driven by significant fuel price hikes linked to the ongoing US-Israeli conflict with Iran.
Economists at Nedbank anticipate further inflation increases in the coming months due to rising fuel costs. As a net fuel importer, South Africa is particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in global energy prices.
They also noted that the central bank is likely to take a proactive approach to counter these inflationary pressures, forecasting a 25-basis-point rate hike.
Additionally, separate data from Statistics South Africa indicated that retail sales increased by 2.6% year-on-year in March, following a rise of 1.6% in February.
On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the Top-40 index rose by about 0.6%. South Africa’s benchmark government bond for 2035 also strengthened, with yields falling by 6 basis points to 8.87%.
On Thursday, 21 May, the rand was trading at R16.50 to the dollar, R22.15 to the pound, and R19.17 to the euro. Gold is trading lower at $4,536.46 an ounce, while oil prices were at $105.90 a barrel.
5 important things happening in South Africa today
Three men who saved South Africa: Former Eskom CEO Jacob Maroga has said Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, Mteto Nyati, and Dan Marokane’s team at the power utility have turned around the biggest power crisis in the country’s history. However, he warned that South Africa isn’t out of the woods. [MyBroadband]
Big blow to VAT increases: The High Court has declared section 7(4) of the VAT Act inconsistent with the Constitution, limiting the power of the Finance Minister to change tax rates without Parliamentary participation. [Daily Investor]
Interest rate hikes on the cards: The latest inflation figures from Stats SA have come in at the upper limit of the one-percentage-point tolerance band of the Reserve Bank’s new 3% inflation target, bringing an interest rate hike next week closer to reality. [BusinessTech]
Eskom looks for nuclear funding: Eskom, South Africa’s state power utility, is in talks with the World Bank for funding a multibillion-dollar nuclear programme that could launch within a year. [CNBC Africa]
South Africa’s security under threat: MPs, including those from the ANC, criticised the chronic underfunding of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) during a budget debate. They warned that this has led to declining defence capabilities and compromises national security as the SANDF’s role has expanded. [Business Day]
