The government is discussing ways to provide relief to South Africans as the country is grappling with one of its most severe fuel price shocks in history.
Deputy Director General Tseliso Maqubela from the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources said that there is still a chance that an announcement on further relief measures is still on the table.
Mid-month projections from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) show that motorists and other fuel users are in for more pain in May.
The latest data shows that petrol prices are building an under-recovery of between R2.62 and R2.99 per litre, while diesel is showing an under-recovery of between R9.05 and R9.07 per litre.
While these under-recoveries are much lower than where they started at the beginning of the month (R8 and R17 per litre for petrol and diesel, respectively), they remain significant.
Specifically, a R9-per-litre hike in diesel prices would push the wholesale price above R35 per litre in May, shattering the record set in April 2026.
Wholesale diesel prices climbed to R26.11 (0.005%, inland) in April, beating the previous record of R25.53 in July 2022.
While petrol avoided hitting its highest-ever point—reaching R23.36, versus R26.74 per litre in July 2022 (petrol 95)—the current projection is for it to land close to that point.
In an interview with Kaya Biz, Maqubela said that understanding how petrol prices are calculated is key to unpacking the crisis.
He explained that South Africa has import parity pricing, meaning South Africa effectively mirrors global fuel prices.
“We look at major refining centres globally and then look at what they are selling refined products for, and those then filter into our price build-up,” he said.
These international product prices are then influenced by the rand-dollar exchange rate, before additional costs are layered on.
Petrol price relief discussions are still ongoing
On top of that, the retailers have got to have a margin, the wholesalers have got to have a margin, and that finds its way into the price build-up.
Freight costs for importing fuel into the country are also included, along with government levies such as the general fuel levy and the Road Accident Fund levy.
Despite criticism, Maqubela said this system “has served us well” over nearly two decades, ensuring both security of supply and competitive pricing.
A major factor shaping the current fuel landscape is South Africa’s reliance on imports. Maqubela noted that the country has been importing between 60% and 70% of its finished products.
This mainly comes from Gulf countries such as Oman, Kuwait, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, as well as India. In total, South Africa consumes between 65 and 67 million litres every single day.
While concerns have been raised about supply disruptions, Maqubela stressed that availability is not the primary issue.
“We are not concerned about the availability of supply. Our concern remains the price,” he said, pointing to rising global oil prices and a weaker rand as key drivers of higher costs.
On the possibility of further relief, Maqubela praised the National Treasury’s recent intervention to partially suspend the fuel levy, calling the move “quite commendable” given the fiscal sacrifice involved.
However, he warned that discussions about additional relief are still ongoing. “There is work that is being done, and at the right time, there will be announcements made,” he said.
“This announcement could come around the third week of April or so. However, I wouldn’t want to preempt the outcome of those discussions,” Maqubela said.
For now, he stressed that it is too early to predict May’s fuel prices, as daily under-recoveries fluctuate sharply based on global events.
