South African farmers may need to reduce planting and livestock numbers if the country heads into a worst-case scenario with the arrival of a potentially powerful El Niño this summer.
Speaking to 702’s Bongani Bingwa, Dr Ikalafeng Kgakatsi from the Department of Agriculture said farmers should prepare for prolonged hot, dry conditions.
“You must reduce, or you must refrain from planting because this might be the worst-case scenario.”
Kgakatsi said livestock farmers should also avoid increasing herd sizes in the event grazing and feed were likely to become limited.
“You must also start by now reducing your livestock to make sure that you have a smaller number that we can feed.”
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The warning came as the South African Weather Service (SAWS) tracked a very strong El Niño event, with warmer-than-normal waters in the tropical Pacific.
Experts predict it could affect South Africa’s usual summer rainfall patterns.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns.
Conditions oscillate between El Niño and its opposite La Niña, with neutral conditions in between.
The last El Niño contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time high.
“So El Niño specifically refers to when the central and eastern part of the tropical Pacific Ocean is warmer than normal. So what do we mean by warmer than normal? So typically more than 0.5 degrees warmer than the baseline,” explained South African Weather Service lead scientist Christine Engelbrecht.
She said the country could experience reduced rainfall and higher temperatures.
“Not all El Niño events, and not even all very strong El Niño events, result in really large rainfall deficits, but most of them do.”
Engelbrecht said the 2015-16 El Niño offered some clues as to what the next few months could bring.
“It resulted in widespread dry conditions and really extreme temperatures over South Africa.”
But she said South Africa was entering the current season in a better position than it had been in 2015, with stronger dam levels and better vegetation following good rainfall.
“Our water resources are currently in a very good state. You know, the level of all our dams, basically countrywide. So in terms of water availability in the dams, we’re in a very, very good position.”
However, that does not remove the risk that high temperatures and reduced rainfall could place on crops and livestock, she said.
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