While the South African economy took a heavy hit from the war in Iran, the JSE All Share index performed strongly enough to put the year-to-date index in positive territory.
Despite weak economic growth in South Africa, the local equity market has been resilient amid improved optimism driven by the Government of National Unity (GNU) and record commodity prices.
However, the market suffered heavily after the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran on 28 February, with Iran responding by targeting the regional energy supply, shutting down the Strait of Hormuz.
The JSE shed over R3 billion in market value in March, which was the worst month for the bourse since the global financial crisis in 2008.
The JSE suffered a rise in risk-off sentiment, rising oil prices, and interest rate cuts, now looking likely to be hikes instead.
However, April was a different story for the South African equity market, with the FTSE/JSE Capped All Share rising 6% month-on-month.
This growth was enough to move the bourse back into positive territory for the year, with the bourse rising 1.2% year-to-date.
Peter Little, Fund Manager at Anchor Capital, noted that Naspers and Prosus improved 4% MoM.
The investment companies contributed positively as they began to claw their way back from a tough start to the year, dropping -23% in 1Q26.
Little added that diversified miners, including Anglo American, up 12.8% MoM and BHP Group, up 8.5% MoM, were among the top performers on the JSE, helped by a rally in industrial metals like copper.
Banks were also up 4.6% MoM and were another strong contributor to the JSE returns in April.
That said, precious metal miners shaved over 1% off April’s index performance, with gold miners down 4.7% MoM and platinum miners down 4.1% MoM. The gold price fell for the second straight month.
When looking at individual stocks, Clicks was down 9.2% MoM, as its share price fell despite reporting 1H26 headline earnings per share rising 8.1% YoY.
“Still, management delivered disappointing guidance for full-year earnings growth, 4% to 9%, as they factor in the impact of higher energy costs on margins and consumer spending,” said Little.
There was a large divergence in performance within the telco sector, with MTN up 9.6% MoM, while Vodacom was down 2.1% MoM.
MTN was boosted by stronger operating performance from its key markets, Nigeria and Ghana, which both reported strong 1Q26 results during April.
Other signs of life for South Africa
On top of the equity market rebound, Little said that the rand strengthened against the US dollar by 1.6% MoM, which left it marginally weaker YTD at -0.7%.
Risk-off sentiment tends to boost the dollar and move capital away from emerging markets, even if the United States was among the initial instigators of the conflict.
Little noted that the dollar was weaker against most major currencies in the month, as positive investor sentiment drew them away from the relative safety of the US currency.
South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago recently heralded the resilience of the rand and other emerging-market currencies, noting this could reflect a broader souring on US assets.
South Africa’s 10-year borrowing rate ended April back below 9%, at 8.9% p.a. Little said that local bond yields fell despite generally higher global bond yields.
When it comes to bonds, Little said that investors began to weigh the potential inflationary impact of energy prices remaining higher for an extended period.
The latest South African inflation print of 3.1% in March was in line with expectations and broadly aligned with the SARB’s new 3% inflation target.
“However, this data is yet to reflect the recent energy price spikes, which are expected to push the SARB back into rate-hiking mode,” said Little.
