The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has delivered a direct warning to sub-Saharan African governments, including Ghana, that structural barriers blocking private sector growth must be dismantled urgently, or risk squandering the strongest regional economic momentum seen in a decade.
After a strong 2025 in which regional growth reached 4.5 percent, the fastest pace in over a decade, sub-Saharan Africa entered 2026 facing renewed pressure. The IMF has revised its 2026 growth forecast for the region downward to 4.3 percent, with downside risks described as significant amid high global uncertainty and persistent macroeconomic vulnerabilities.
The April 2026 Regional Economic Outlook’s dedicated chapter on structural reform delivers a stark productivity diagnosis: average labour productivity across sub-Saharan Africa has been essentially unchanged in real terms for nearly three decades, from 1991 to 2024. Total factor productivity, which measures how efficiently labour and capital are combined, contributed only about one-quarter of a percentage point to annual GDP growth over the past 25 years, and in resource-intensive economies the measure has actually turned negative since the end of the commodity super cycle.
The Fund identified the high cost of doing business, weak state-owned enterprise performance, and fragmented regional trade links as the primary structural obstacles slowing productivity, discouraging investment, and limiting long-term growth.
IMF African Department Director Abebe Selassie, presenting the outlook at the Fund’s Spring Meetings press briefing, called for concrete reform options across three areas: improving governance, strengthening business environments, and deepening domestic financial markets. He described productivity growth as “the long-term prize,” while acknowledging that realising it requires upfront investment in reliable electricity, digital infrastructure, and skills.
On regional trade, the IMF called for further progress on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), specifically through reducing non-tariff barriers, modernising customs procedures, and deepening trade in services, arguing that these steps would lower trade costs and create larger and more diversified markets for local goods and services.
The Fund also addressed the role of technology in unlocking growth, noting that the region’s readiness for artificial intelligence adoption remains below that of many other emerging markets, reflecting gaps in infrastructure, skills, and governance capacity, although AI is already being adopted for problem-solving applications in key sectors, with scope for productivity gains and improved public service delivery. Governments were urged to accelerate low-cost AI applications in revenue administration and financial inclusion, accompanied by investment in energy grids, connectivity, cybersecurity, and data governance.
On public spending, the Fund raised persistent concerns about value for money in health, education, and infrastructure budgets, warning that inefficiencies continue to weaken the development impact of government expenditure across the region. State-owned enterprises were singled out for governance and cost-recovery improvements, with the IMF stressing that reforms must be designed to avoid worsening hardship for vulnerable households.
The IMF’s message is that sub-Saharan Africa’s growth has historically depended too heavily on commodity booms or public investment, neither of which has delivered durable convergence with richer economies. The next phase must focus on governance, simpler business regulation, stronger external-sector policies, and an investment climate that can attract private capital and create jobs.
For Ghana specifically, the IMF revised the 2026 growth forecast upward to 4.8 percent, reflecting stronger-than-expected performance under the IMF programme, with Ghana’s economic growth reaching 6 percent in 2025. However, analysts at the Brookings Institution cautioned that while Ghana had made progress under its IMF programme, growth remained weak, private sector credit was constrained, and confidence recovery was slow.
Selassie closed the briefing on a note of guarded optimism, acknowledging that the region has repeatedly weathered crisis while continuing to reform. “The gains of 2025 are real, and they are worth defending,” he said.
