NAIROBI: AS an East African citizen, I have noticed that discussions on political platforms and even in churches have continued recently, with implications that, when examined closely, will do more harm to Kenya, especially in attracting investment.
Every time one listens to what is being revealed from both sides, one notices that, outrightly, these discussions are not helping the Kenyan people; instead, they are making potential investors less interested in investing in Kenya, which could place Kenya in more challenging times.
The world is clearly questioning whether what is happening is real, especially when high-ranking Kenyan government officials continue to undress each other in public.
This is evident every time I consider what is being publicly revealed on the leading platforms ahead of the upcoming 2027 elections and evaluate it thoroughly.
Strong declarations or signs of political turmoil can send a harmful message to both domestic and foreign investors. I am not sure how Kenyans are handling this on their own.
For instance, claims of political injustice or statements expressing “disagreement with early election results” heighten concerns about unrest. Investors delay projects, particularly in the infrastructure and industrial sectors.
Reduced foreign direct investment (FDI), a decline in the stock market and higher borrowing costs are some of the effects.
Although Kenya’s stock market is renowned for its efficiency within the EAC, I believe persistent pronouncements that create uncertainty will affect market expectations.
For instance, investors may sell their assets in a panic if former high-ranking officials in different countries warn that the “economy is at risk of collapse” without providing official statistics.
These impacts include increased inflation, pressure on the Kenyan shilling and rising import prices. In my view, the accusations made against one another at rallies and in churches will raise the cost of borrowing (also known as the sovereign risk premium). Before making loans, the global market evaluates political risk.
Kenyans should be aware that statements that criticise monetary policy or hint at significant, uncertain changes after 2027 increase the nation’s risk and could lead to higher government bond interest rates, pressure on the national budget and, crucially, a reduction in development spending.
One must listen to the renowned Kenyan scholar, Professor PLO Lumumba, to understand the extent to which Kenya and its economy are in serious trouble.
Prof PLO recently questioned the rationale of the NYOTA programme, asking why anyone should be running around the country distributing it and why anyone would tell our politicians that everybody’s a businessman or businesswoman and that if you give 50,000 (Ksh), they will engage in some business.
According to him, this is shameful, going into the electorate to win their votes, politicians come with solutions he described as scatterbrain solutions about how school fees are to be paid and how you run education in the 21st century when you say that you want to be a first-world country? Prof PLO, a Kenyan scholar widely respected globally, confirms that Kenya’s institutions are dead or dying.
He cited one governance-related issue: Kenya has one of the most expensive ways of hiring public officials, which is well known worldwide.
For instance, he says that in Kenya, when you want to hire an official in the central government or the county, you appoint a panel to hire that person and you pay them an allowance.
Is this how you run the nation’s public offices? Professor PLO admits that Kenya is in a bad state and the sooner Kenyans admit it, the safer they will be, because then they will be looking for solutions to solve these problems.
Citing a few examples to demonstrate how things have deteriorated, the professor says that he drives around Kenya.
In particular in neighbourhoods in Nairobi and even matters as mundane as fixing things like roundabouts for the last 15 years roundabouts in Nairobi have never been fixed for the last 15 years, then you tell me we are going to be a first world?
Then he questioned how Kenya would become a first-world country. As another simple example, Prof PLO says traffic lights have not been fixed.
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Then you tell me we are going to be a fast world? Garbage is collected by lorries that are themselves garbage and you tell the world that Kenya is going into the first world?
According to PLO, Kenya’s Auditor General and the Controller General have openly said that billions of monies are being stolen and that Kenyans no longer care about theft.
Nobody cares about it anymore in Kenya. It is sad, according to PLO, that in Kenya at present, the rhetoric is tribal, with leading politicians telling fellow Kenyans that you cannot go to schools in our areas and yet we are one Kenya.
You tell me we are moving in the right direction. PLO, a highly respected scholar, is worried, saying that the current crop of politicians, where 90 per cent of them in this country, will never realise our potential.
Prof PLO has been around long enough to know and he has seen them moving from one political party to another.
What Prof PLO is telling the world is that there are no political parties in Kenya that move from one political formation to another every election cycle and that the Kenyan electorate has also been confused.
The Kenyan electorate now responds only to the following stimuli: tribe, money, comedians or comedy on stage, vulgar language and false promises, all showing Kenya is not the same as when it was founded by its founding father, Jomo Kenyatta.
Honestly, I like the way PLO puts it: when he examines Kenya, she is in such a state and the question is: is she moving in the right direction? Prof Lumumba says it all with a metaphor: today, Kenya is a nation where they are looking for fish by climbing trees and for oranges by diving into the ocean.
Kenya would never succeed if it continues on this trajectory. According to PLO, there are good Kenyans who, day after day, try to do the right thing, but who cares about them? Kenya is a nation that now steals from and vilifies its saints.
The voices of reason cannot be heard, even in their purest tones. Even when they are hard, they are poo-pooed in places of worship. Kenya is not the same and the road ahead is uncertain.
Given where Kenya is now and what has been said, the tourism industry is being severely affected.
Tourism is particularly sensitive to a nation’s perceived stability.
For instance, public remarks about demonstrations or political upheaval may be publicised globally, which would lower tourism and thus reduce hotel and national park income, service sector jobs and foreign exchange earnings.
Additional effects will include heightened anxiety within the banking industry.
Political and economic stability are essential to banks. For instance, when statements are made about the potential for large-scale protests, people may withdraw huge amounts of money from their banks (bank runs), which may result in lower liquidity, greater caution in making loans and fewer loans to small firms.
Although having an open impact on international relations. Ethnic or regional divisions may widen as a result of past leaders’ remarks that cross ethnic boundaries. Former senior leaders’ rhetoric carries significant political and economic clout in the leadup to Kenya’s 2027 elections.
An economy is a system that depends on trust, stability and predictable policies. Phrases that sow discord, anxiety, or uncertainty are “reducing investment,” “raising borrowing costs,” or “making the currency less valuable.”
Therefore, although political rivalry is a natural aspect of democracy, the rhetoric former leaders employ, particularly in political forums and even in places of worship, directly affects the economy