External risks linked to global trade disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and regional insecurity continue to shape the operating environment for Ghana’s banking sector, according to the 2026 Industry Outlook released by the Ghana Association of Banks (GAB).
While domestic macroeconomic conditions have shown signs of stabilization, the Outlook cautions that vulnerabilities originating outside Ghana remain significant for financial institutions and credit conditions in 2026.
The GAB Outlook notes that external shocks, shifting capital flows, and energy price uncertainty remain persistent sources of vulnerability. Risks remain elevated across several fronts, including sovereign exposure, non-performing loans, cyber threats, geopolitical fragmentation, and climate-related shocks, all of which continue to influence banks’ balance sheets, risk appetite, and operating costs.
Trade Route Disruptions Persist
Global trade disruptions remain a key concern. The Outlook highlights that Suez Canal traffic remains approximately 60 percent below pre-crisis 2023 levels in early 2026, according to BIMCO data, reflecting continued risk aversion among global shipping operators.
For banks, these disruptions translate into heightened uncertainty across trade finance, logistics-linked lending, and energy-related exposures. The report warns that any renewed escalation in regional security conditions could quickly reintroduce supply chain bottlenecks and amplify volatility across energy and trade markets.
Food and Energy Price Pressures
Food and energy price pressures also remain a risk factor for banks’ asset quality. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, now in its fourth year with no clear resolution, continues to sustain elevated global food and energy prices.
The Outlook notes that the two countries account for roughly 30 percent of global wheat supply, and ongoing disruptions have contributed to Ghana’s persistent food inflation, estimated at nine to 10 percent in late 2025.
Elevated food inflation weakens household purchasing power and raises credit risks, particularly in retail, agribusiness, and small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) portfolios.
Sahel Instability Creates Regional Concerns
Regionally, instability in the Sahel is increasingly relevant to banks’ risk assessments. Rising insecurity in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger continues to pose spillover risks for coastal West African states, including Ghana.
While large-scale militant attacks have not occurred domestically, the Outlook points to heightened vulnerabilities along Ghana’s northern borders, including increased cross-border movements, logistical pressures, and security-related strains linked to Sahelian instability.
These security concerns are beginning to affect economic sentiment and operating costs. The GAB Outlook notes that border-area incidents, persistent ethnic tensions such as those in Bawku, and refugee inflows estimated at over 110,000 across coastal states are dampening investor confidence.
Such pressures have the potential to raise insurance and transport costs along major trade corridors, weaken investment appetite in mining and logistics, and elevate credit risks in regions exposed to cross-border trade.
Banking Sector Implications
The report cautions that without effective containment, security spillovers could have broader implications for the banking sector.
It warns that these risks could undermine Ghana’s projected growth of over four percent in 2026 and exacerbate already elevated non-performing loans in the post-Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP) environment.
Higher operating costs, rising risk premiums, and weaker borrower performance could weigh on banks’ profitability and lending capacity.
The 2026 Industry Outlook comes as Ghana’s economy has shown remarkable resilience. Inflation dropped to 5.4 percent in December 2025 from 23.8 percent a year earlier, reaching the lowest level since the Consumer Price Index was rebased in 2021.
The Bank of Ghana has cut its benchmark monetary policy rate three times in 2025, most recently by 350 basis points to 18 percent in November, citing improved macroeconomic outlook and continued inflation decline.
The cedi appreciated by about 30 percent against the United States dollar in 2025, making it one of the best performing currencies globally during the year. Gross international reserves stood at approximately 11.4 billion dollars by late 2025, providing nearly five months of imports cover.
However, the GAB report suggests that maintaining this momentum requires vigilance against external shocks, particularly those originating from global energy markets and commodity price volatility.
