The United Arab Emirates (UAE) lost Sh62.7 billion worth of Kenya’s import business in the first half of the year, as the Iran war disrupted Middle East fuel supply chains.
The collapse pushed the UAE from Kenya’s second-largest source of imports to fourth, as Saudi Arabia emerged as a major beneficiary of the disruption while India moved into second place.
Kenya’s imports from the UAE fell 35.1 percent to Sh115.9 billion in the six months to June, from Sh178.7 billion a year earlier, according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.
The decline accelerated after the conflict began, with Kenya’s purchases from the UAE dropping by Sh60.6 billion, or 49.4 percent, to Sh62.2 billion between March and June. The imports halved from Sh122.8 billion in the four months last year.
The UAE is a top supplier of petroleum products to Kenya, including premium petrol, jet fuel and residual fuel oils used in marine and industrial applications.
The sharp decline coincided with disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy supplies and a major gateway for Gulf oil exporters.
The conflict forced oil producers and importers to rethink supply routes, with countries possessing alternative infrastructure to bypass Hormuz gaining an advantage as security risks increased for vessels using the waterway.
The UAE’s decline was significant because Kenya’s overall import bill expanded to Sh292.5 billion, or 21.9 percent, to Sh1.63 trillion during the first half.
This means that the UAE’s collapse was not driven by a broad contraction in Kenya’s demand for imported goods.
Instead, much of the growth was concentrated in other major suppliers, particularly China, India and Saudi Arabia.
China retained the top position after its shipments rose 37.2 percent to Sh417.8 billion, while India moved into second place after imports jumped Sh75.5 billion, or 54.1 percent, to Sh215.2 billion.
Saudi Arabia recorded the biggest increase, with imports surging Sh124.2 billion, or 484.4 percent, to Sh149.8 billion, lifting the kingdom from sixth place last year to third.
The contrast between the two Gulf suppliers is especially striking because Saudi Arabia’s main exports to Kenya included diesel and premium petrol, products that compete directly with some of the UAE’s leading shipments.
Saudi Arabia accounted for 56.4 percent of Kenya’s combined imports from the two Gulf states in the first half, compared with 12.5 percent a year earlier. The UAE’s share fell to 43.6 percent from 87.5 percent.
The reversal becomes more dramatic when you analyse the Gulf import numbers over two years. The KNBS numbers show Kenya imported Sh157.9 billion from the UAE in the first half of 2024 against Sh20.1 billion from Saudi Arabia.
By the first half of 2026, Saudi Arabia had overtaken the UAE, with its shipments reaching Sh149.8 billion against Sh115.9 billion from the UAE.
The combined value of imports from the two Gulf states nevertheless increased by Sh61.5 billion to Sh265.8 billion in the January-June period, from Sh204.3 billion a year earlier.
The figures suggest Kenya’s demand for Gulf fuel did not disappear during the Middle East conflict but was increasingly supplied by Saudi Arabia, highlighting how the war reshaped regional supply chains rather than simply reducing trade.
Saudi Arabia’s rise was aided by its ability to move crude to the Red Sea through its East-West Pipeline, reducing reliance on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The 1,200-kilometre pipeline gave Saudi Arabia an alternative export route as the conflict increased risks around the strategic waterway.
Saudi Aramco, the Kingdom’s oil export giant, has said its pipeline, storage facilities and export terminals helped it maintain business continuity despite disruption to commercial shipping.
The trade route shift also strengthened Saudi Arabia’s position in Kenya’s government-to-government fuel import programme, which allows the country to source petrol, diesel and jet fuel from Saudi Aramco, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company and Emirates National Oil Company on 180-day credit terms.
Before the conflict, UAE suppliers were major participants in the arrangement. The latest KNBS numbers, however, show Saudi Arabia has rapidly overtaken the UAE as Kenya’s dominant Gulf supplier.
China and Saudi Arabia together accounted for 81.2 percent of the increase in Kenya’s import bill, adding a combined Sh237.4 billion during the six months.
Saudi Arabia alone contributed 42.5 percent of the increase, while China accounted for 38.7 percent, highlighting how infrastructure demand and changing Middle East fuel supplies concentrated Kenya’s import growth in a handful of markets.
The UAE was only one among Kenya’s four largest import sources in the first half of last year to record a major decline this year.
Imports from Japan fell by Sh2.4 billion, or 3.5 percent, to Sh66.3 billion, while those from the US dropped by Sh3.9 billion, or 5.5 percent, to Sh66.49 billion.
