Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson says he remains confident Ghana’s inflation rate will stay below 5% by the end of 2026, even as escalating tensions in the Middle East threaten global energy and commodity markets.
His assurance follows a brief pause in Ghana’s disinflation trend, with headline inflation inching up to 3.4% in April from 3.2% in March — the first increase after 15 consecutive months of decline. The outlook, however, remains well within the Bank of Ghana’s medium‑term target band of 8% ±2 percentage points.
Speaking to Bloomberg, Dr Forson acknowledged that the conflict in the Middle East presents real risks to Ghana’s inflation trajectory, particularly through higher petroleum and fertiliser prices and renewed supply‑chain pressures.
“The conflict poses pressure on the price of petroleum products and, most importantly, fertiliser and supply chains,” he said. “Availability isn’t a concern at the moment — the challenge has to do with price increases.”
Despite these risks, he argued that Ghana is better positioned to absorb external shocks, citing stronger foreign‑exchange reserves, rising gold production and favourable global commodity prices.
“The good news is that in Ghana, we do not have subsidies on petroleum products. And we have built significant reserves,” he noted.
He added that elevated gold prices and increased production offer additional support for meeting FX demand for essential imports.
“Our gold production is going up and gold prices are very high. Ghana is in a comfortable position to withstand those shocks.”
Dr Forson cautioned that inflation may face some short‑term pressure but insisted the broader outlook remains stable.
“We expect that inflation may inch up. Today it’s about 3.4%. I still think we’ll be better off, and I don’t think the country’s inflation will exceed 5% by the end of the year.”
He also highlighted improving performance in Ghana’s export sector as a key stabilising factor.
“Our major exports are doing well. Cocoa dipped, but cocoa prices have started going up. Oil — we’re also an oil exporter — so we’re getting something back in foreign exchange.”
His comments come as the Bank of Ghana adopts a more cautious monetary stance. The central bank held its policy rate at 14% last month after a series of cuts earlier in the year, warning that rising global crude prices and supply‑chain disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict could threaten recent gains in price stability.
