Kenya Met has warned the country to brace for a possible outbreak of Malaria as health and weather authorities raise concern over rising transmission risks linked to ongoing heavy rains across the country.
The alert follows the release of the Malaria Epidemic Early Warning Prediction System for the Western Kenya Highlands, jointly developed by the Kenya Meteorological Department, the Ministry of Health, and the Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI), which indicates elevated outbreak risks in April 2026.
According to the latest projections, Kisii County faces the highest threat, with a 100 per cent probability of a malaria epidemic, well above the 20 per cent threshold, placing it firmly in the high-risk category for April and May.
Nandi County has also been flagged as high risk, with a 60 per cent probability of an outbreak, while Kakamega shows a lower but notable risk at 27.3 per cent, slightly below the 30 per cent epidemic threshold.
A photo depicting heavy rains and an insert of Acting Kenya Meteorological Department Director General Edward Muriuki.
Photo
Kenya Met/SciLine
“Malaria epidemic early prediction model outputs for the Western Highlands of Kenya, including Kakamega, Kisii, and Nandi, for the period April to May 2026 indicate that there is a high overall risk of a 100% chance of a malaria epidemic in Kisii, a high risk of a 60% chance of a malaria epidemic in Nandi and a lower risk of a 27.3% chance of a malaria epidemic in Kakamega during the forecast period,” the report read in part.
Experts attribute the increased risk to above-average rainfall recorded in March, combined with slightly cooler temperatures that still favour mosquito survival and breeding, creating ideal conditions for malaria transmission.
High-Risk Areas
High-burden regions remain concentrated around the Lake Victoria basin, including counties such as Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay, Migori, Busia, Vihiga, and Kakamega, where transmission rates remain among the highest in the country.
Recent data shows some counties recording incidences as high as 748 cases per 1,000 people, pointing to the persistent risk even as mortality rates have declined by 32 per cent between 2019 and 2023.
Long Rains & Flooding
The outbreak warning coincides with forecasts from the Kenya Met indicating that the long rains will persist throughout April, with intensification expected in the second half of the month.
Regions including the Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin, and central highlands, such as Nairobi, Kiambu, Nyandarua, and Embu, are expected to receive near-to-above-average rainfall, with occasional storms and flooding likely to worsen conditions.
The rains, driven by the northward movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), are expected to create widespread wet and warm conditions, with daytime temperatures ranging between 20°C and 32°C, further supporting mosquito activity.
This warning comes against a wider national and global malaria burden. Globally, an estimated 282 million cases and 610,000 deaths were recorded in 2024, according to the World Health Organisation, pointing to the continued threat posed by the disease despite progress in recent years.
In Kenya, the situation remains significant, with approximately 5 million cases reported in 2024. Although the national incidence rate has declined to 72 cases per 1,000 people, down from 104 in 2023, malaria continues to exert pressure on the health system
The government has now urged residents, particularly in high-risk counties, to take preventive measures, including clearing stagnant water, using treated mosquito nets, and seeking early treatment.
A collage of the aftermath of heavy rains that pounded several parts of Nairobi County on March 7, 2026.
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Kenyans.co.ke
