Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will table the 2026 Budget at 14h00 on Wednesday (25 February), with analysts anticipating a credible showing with plenty of good news.
South Africans will be able to tune into the Budget Speech across a variety of channels, including radio, TV and online streaming.
The main channels for streaming online are:
This article will be updated with live feeds as the Budget build-up comes online.
Unlike the chaos of 2025, where three separate budget meetings were held in February, March, and finally May, the 2026 Budget is expected to be smooth sailing.
After political infighting and ructions within the Government of National Unity (GNU) over the inclusion of a VAT hike in the original 2025 budget, the finance department changed its processes for 2026.
Notably, the upcoming budget should result from wider consultation within the GNU and from a broader range of inputs from the array of political parties that comprise it.
Analysts also anticipate that South Africa’s financial situation will be much improved from last year.
Godongwana has signalled that the country’s debt as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) will stabilise this year, suggesting government debt will finally peak after rising for almost two decades.
This would lower the state’s interest bill and free up resources for education, health care and infrastructure investment as municipal elections approach.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg see the debt-to-GDP ratio peaking at 78% — slightly above the National Treasury’s 77.9% forecast — before easing to 76.9% by 2029.
They expect Godongwana to outline how those gains will be sustained through a new fiscal rule to be adopted by next year.
Economists expect good news
“The market is expecting a very bullish budget with a substantial revenue overrun feeding through to higher primary surpluses and a clear decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio,” Carmen Nel, head of multi-asset at Terebinth Capital, said in an interview.
Economists anticipate tax collections to exceed the Treasury’s November forecast by R10 billion and expenditure to significantly undershoot in the year through March.
That’s likely to lower the consolidated budget deficit to 4.4% of GDP, better than the Treasury’s previous 4.7% projection.
Hitting those numbers would widen South Africa’s primary surplus, whereby revenue exceeds non-interest expenditure.
The fiscal gains reflect deliberate policy choices rather than merely favourable external tailwinds, said Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economist Andrew Matheny.
“The fiscal improvement is mostly Treasury’s doing,” he said. “Corporate income-tax receipts have come in somewhat stronger than expected, but not dramatically so.”
The anticipated fiscal improvements, together with South Africa’s removal from the FATF grey list and the adoption of a 3% inflation target, could strengthen the case for ratings upgrades.
Economists expect Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Ratings to shift the country’s outlook to positive when they deliver their next assessments.
Godongwana is also expected to maintain a hard line on support for state-owned enterprises.
There are no expectations for major SOE bailouts in the budget, but pressures at Transnet, the RAF and other state companies remain a persistent risk.
South Africans will also be on the lookout for other big-ticket issues, like the National Health Insurance (NHI) scheme, new tax measures—or even relief—and information around new social grants.
According to Aluma Capital Chief Economist Frederick Mitchell, while the macro-narrative for South Africa is positive, taxpayers desperately need relief.
Middle-class taxpayers in particular are reaching a breaking point, he said.
“For two fiscal years, tax brackets and medical aid credits have remained unadjusted, creating a ‘pernicious stealth tax’ through bracket creep. As salaries rise with inflation, more South Africans are pushed into higher tax brackets without a real increase in wealth,” he said,
While the economist expects the customary increase in “sin taxes” (alcohol and tobacco), he insists Godongwana must address this fiscal drag with the tax base.
“Failure to provide relief to this narrow tax base would be a direct blow to household consumption, which accounts for 60% of South Africa’s GDP,” he said.
With reporting from Bloomberg.
