Worldwide air cargo rates continued declining in mid January 2026 even as shipping volumes recovered strongly from year end lows, with average rates falling to 2.41 United States dollars per kilogram in the week ending January 18, according to WorldACD Market Data.
The latest figures published on January 22 show rates have dropped 9 percent from 2.64 dollars per kilogram recorded in mid December, reflecting the typical post holiday season pattern. Despite the rate decline, cargo volumes surged 25 percent when comparing the two weeks ending January 18 with the preceding two weeks, indicating robust demand recovery across most global regions.
Regional performance varied significantly during the latest reporting period. Africa showed the strongest growth, with chargeable weight increasing 8 percent when comparing recent weeks to the previous fortnight. Asia Pacific volumes rose 10 percent over the same comparison period, while North America recorded 7 percent growth. Europe and Central and South America saw gains of 9 percent and 13 percent respectively, with Middle East and South Asia posting 12 percent growth.
Year over year comparisons paint a more complex picture. While worldwide capacity increased 5 percent compared to the same period in 2025, chargeable weight declined 1 percent globally. However, strong regional variations emerged. Africa recorded 7 percent growth in chargeable weight year over year, while Europe held steady with 2 percent growth. Asia Pacific remained flat, Central and South America declined 5 percent, and Middle East and South Asia experienced a significant 13 percent drop year over year.
Capacity trends showed dramatic shifts across regions. North America led with 36 percent capacity growth over the past five weeks, followed by Europe at 26 percent, Central and South America at 21 percent, and Asia Pacific at 17 percent. Middle East and South Asia increased capacity by 12 percent, while Africa posted a modest 3 percent gain over the same period.
Rate movements varied considerably by trade lane during the two week period ending January 18. The North America to Europe route saw rates increase 28 percent, while Africa to Europe climbed 25 percent. Asia Pacific to North America rates rose 29 percent, and Central and South America to North America jumped 52 percent. However, several major routes experienced rate declines. Europe to Asia Pacific fell 6 percent, while Africa to Middle East and South Asia dropped 5 percent.
WorldACD bases its trends on more than 500,000 transactions per week from airlines, forwarders, shippers, airports and general sales agents worldwide. The organization provides detailed market data for hundreds of markets at different origin and destination levels to subscribers seeking granular insights into specific trade lanes and market segments.
Industry analysts note that 2025 ended with full year worldwide air cargo tonnages increasing approximately 4 percent compared to 2024. The strong start to 2026 comes despite forecasts predicting slower growth this year, with some analysts projecting expansion of just 2 to 3 percent as the industry faces headwinds from e-commerce regulation changes, tariff uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions affecting traditional shipping routes.
Air freight demand in Asia Pacific is expected to remain strong into 2026, led by high technology, artificial intelligence and e-commerce shipments despite capacity constraints, according to industry reports. China airfreight demand is building ahead of Lunar New Year on February 10, with exporters accelerating shipments before factory closures. The compressed pre Lunar New Year shipping window is likely to tighten capacity and push rates higher from late January to early February.
The partial resumption of some container shipping services through the Red Sea and Suez Canal could affect air cargo volumes from Middle East and South Asia, which have benefited over the past two years from increased demand as shippers avoided the disrupted maritime routes. However, ongoing geopolitical instability may limit a full return to supply chain patterns seen prior to 2023.
Market observers point out that despite recent rate declines, current prices remain significantly elevated compared to pre pandemic levels. Average worldwide rates of 2.41 dollars per kilogram in mid January, while down 8 percent year over year, still stand approximately 30 percent above January 2019 levels, reflecting structural changes in air cargo economics following the disruptions of recent years.
The air cargo industry faces an uncertain trajectory in 2026 as it balances recovering volumes against softening rates, evolving trade policies, shifting e-commerce patterns, and the gradual normalization of maritime shipping routes that diverted cargo to air transport during recent disruptions. Industry forecasters expect demand to strengthen in the second half of the year, particularly during traditional peak seasons driven by Asian export demand for e-commerce and technology components.
