Safina Deputy Party Leader Willis Otieno has issued a stark warning to the Kenyan government, asserting that the country’s aggressive borrowing trajectory is systematically eroding national sovereignty and mortgaging the future of generations to come. Speaking during a policy brief in Nairobi, the constitutional lawyer argued that the current fiscal framework has shifted from financing development to a desperate cycle of borrowing to service existing liabilities, a move he described as a death knell for economic independence.
The nut graf: With Kenya’s public debt officially crossing the KES 12.29 trillion mark as of December 2025—representing 67.8 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)—Otieno’s critique highlights a growing consensus among opposition figures and economic watchdogs. The stakes are immense; the National Treasury is projected to spend over KES 1 trillion on debt servicing in the 2025/26 financial year alone, a figure that threatens to cannibalize essential services like healthcare and education for over 54 million Kenyans.
The Anatomy of a Debt Trap
According to Otieno, the fundamental failure of the current administration lies in its inability to link borrowed funds to productive assets. He noted that over the past decade, loan agreements were often shielded from public scrutiny, with many procurement processes lacking the requisite transparency and competitive integrity. This opacity, he argues, has led to a situation where billions in sovereign bonds, including the controversial Eurobond proceeds, cannot be clearly traced to tangible infrastructure projects with proportional economic returns.
Data from the Office of the Controller of Budget reinforces this grim assessment. Interest payments on public debt reached KES 464.49 billion in the last fiscal cycle, with nearly 54 percent of all debt-related payments covering financial costs rather than reducing the principal amount. Otieno argues that this “interest-only” treadmill is a signal of extreme fiscal strain, where the government acts more as a debt collector for international lenders than a steward of domestic growth.
- Total Public Debt: KES 12.29 trillion (67.8% of GDP)
- Interest Payments: KES 464.49 billion per annum
- Projected Debt Service 2025/26: Exceeding KES 1 trillion
- Statutory Debt Ceiling: 55% of GDP (currently exceeded by 12.8%)
- Per Capita Debt: Approximately KES 220,000 for every Kenyan citizen
The FIST Agenda and the Path to Accountability
In response to the crisis, the Safina Party has proposed what they term the FIST agenda—a radical economic policy aimed at reclaiming fiscal space. The agenda calls for the rejection of “odious debt,” which they define as loans taken without public consent or for the benefit of the populace. Otieno emphasized that the party’s platform includes a commitment to end domestic borrowing to lower interest rates for local businesses and a push to reduce Value Added Tax (VAT) to a 5 percent sales tax to ease the burden on households.
The debate over debt accountability has also revived scrutiny of past financial maneuvers. Otieno specifically referenced the 2014 Eurobond, citing concerns raised by the late Raila Odinga regarding KES 140 billion that remained unaccounted for in public systems. He questioned why the individuals linked to these opaque transactions continue to hold high office, suggesting that the current administration is repeating the same mistakes by entering into parallel taxation agreements that trap citizens in poverty.
Global Parallel and Local Impact
Kenya’s situation is not isolated; it mirrors the debt crises seen in nations like Sri Lanka and Zambia, where over-leveraging led to severe social unrest and economic collapse. However, for a farmer in Bungoma or a trader in Nairobi’s Gikomba market, the impact is more immediate: higher fuel prices—currently hovering at KES 206 per liter—and reduced government subsidies for fertilizers and school capitation. Otieno warns that unless the National Debt Register is opened for a full forensic audit, the country will remain in a “vicious cycle of accumulation.”
The kicker: As the 2027 General Election approaches, the debt question is set to become the ultimate litmus test for leadership; for Willis Otieno and his Safina counterparts, the solution is not more taxes, but a fundamental reckoning with who really owes whom.
