As Nigeria gradually moves towards another major electoral cycle, the political landscape is already witnessing renewed calculations, emerging alliances and increasing competition among political actors. Issues surrounding the economy, insecurity, youth participation, political coalitions and public confidence in democratic institutions are likely to shape the direction of the next election.
In this interview, Ahmad Shuaibu Isa, political activist and leader of the Movement for Inclusive Development and Advancement (MIDA) under the ICRP, and Chairman of the African Union Students’ Club at Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, offers his perspective on the evolving political situation in Nigeria, the prospects of the major presidential contenders, the APC campaign structure, Atiku’s political resurgence and the broader future of Nigerian democracy.
“It Is Too Early to Declare Any Candidate a Certain Winner”
According to Ahmad Shuaibu Isa, it would be premature at this stage to confidently predict the winner of the next presidential election.
“Nigerian politics is changing rapidly, and electoral calculations can shift significantly as the election draws closer.”
He argues that the major contenders will have to navigate three critical factors: political organisation, public sentiment and the ability to build broad-based national alliances.
While being the ruling party may provide certain advantages, he cautions that such advantages do not automatically translate into electoral victory. Likewise, he believes that social media popularity should not be confused with actual electoral strength.
For him, the candidate with the strongest combination of a credible nationwide political structure, a convincing message, effective campaign management and broad acceptance across different parts of the country will have a significant advantage.
He also identifies the economy, insecurity, unemployment, the rising cost of living and public confidence in the electoral process as issues that could strongly influence voters.
APC Campaign Committee: Performance Matters More Than Names
On the campaign committee recently established by the APC, Isa argues that its effectiveness should ultimately be judged by what it delivers rather than by the prominence of its members.
He acknowledges that experienced politicians can bring valuable knowledge and networks to a campaign, but stresses that political experience alone is insufficient.
According to him, the APC requires a campaign structure capable of understanding the changing nature of Nigerian politics, particularly the increasing influence of young people, first-time voters, civil society organisations and communities across the country.
“The committee must be capable of listening to voters rather than simply telling them what the party wants them to hear.”
He believes the campaign committee can become effective if it operates cohesively, communicates its message clearly, manages internal differences and responds to the genuine concerns of citizens.
However, he warns that excessive internal interests and the calculations of powerful political actors could create a disconnect between the party and ordinary Nigerians.
Atiku’s Resurgence Requires Political Analysis, Not Panic
On the growing political momentum around former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Isa advises the APC against responding through panic or personal attacks.
Instead, he recommends a strategy centred on policy, communication and stronger engagement with citizens.
He argues that if Atiku is indeed gaining political ground, the APC needs to understand the reasons behind it.
“Is it dissatisfaction with the economy? Concerns about governance? Political alliances? Regional calculations? Or simply a desire among voters for an alternative?”
For Isa, these questions require serious political analysis rather than emotional reactions.
He therefore believes the APC should communicate directly with the electorate, acknowledge both its achievements and shortcomings, present a credible vision for the future and strengthen its political structures across the country.
Most importantly, he argues that the party should not rely solely on the strength of its previous electoral victories.
“In today’s Nigerian politics, no political party should assume that its existing structure automatically guarantees electoral success. Every election requires serious work, engagement and mobilisation.”
A New Political Phase for Nigeria
Looking at the broader political environment, Isa believes Nigeria is entering an important new phase in which youth participation, coalition-building, nationwide political organisation and economic challenges will increasingly determine electoral outcomes.
He argues that political parties must recognise that Nigerians are looking beyond politicians who can simply win elections.
Citizens, he says, increasingly want leaders capable of providing security, creating economic opportunities, promoting justice and giving people a genuine sense of belonging within the Nigerian state.
He also advocates a departure from exclusionary politics and a stronger emphasis on competition based on policies, programmes and ideas.
“We need a politics that brings people together rather than one that constantly divides them along ethnic, religious or regional lines.”
Democracy Is More Than Winning Elections
For Isa, the ultimate test of democracy does not end on election day.
Winning an election, he argues, is only the beginning. The more important question is how elected leaders govern once they assume office.
“Democracy is not only about who wins an election. What matters even more is how leaders govern after winning.”
He therefore calls for leadership that is accountable, inclusive and responsive to the needs of ordinary Nigerians.
His broader argument is that Nigeria’s political future should move beyond the traditional contest for political power towards a system in which political competition is driven by ideas, national inclusion, economic opportunity, security and effective governance.
As the country moves closer to another decisive electoral period, the central challenge for political parties may therefore not simply be how to win the next election, but how to convince an increasingly demanding electorate that they possess the vision and capacity to govern Nigeria effectively.
