The latest assault on Niamey International Airport claimed the lives of 11 soldiers and two civilians, following an attack in January when terrorists arrived on motorbikes.
This time, the attackers tried to gain access by deception, posing as passengers and reportedly using vehicles including taxis and minibuses.
The change made detection and prevention more difficult, Garba – who teaches at the Louvain-Europe Institute of Political Science in Belgium and has served as a special adviser to ousted President Mohamed Bazoum – told RFI.
“This second attack on Niamey airport shows that terrorism is not abating; it is adapting to security measures and changing its modus operandi,” Garba said.
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Changing tactics
Security was strengthened in and around the airport after the January attack, but that did not deter the attackers, Garba said. He said they may have infiltrated the capital to observe the security arrangements and exploit weaknesses.
The recent demolition of neighbourhoods around the airport by Niger’s military rulers may also have shaped the attackers’ approach. Garba said the measures appeared to have reduced congestion by clearing nearby areas, but added that such moves were likely being watched from inside the capital.
“That is why I am talking about infiltration,” Garba said. “And that is typical of asymmetric conflicts which rely on the element of surprise.”
The January attack was claimed Iby Islamic State in the Greater Sahara, known as ISGS. The latest attack was claimed by JNIM – the al-Qaeda affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims.
Garba said he did not see either coordination or rivalry between the two militia, but said both were targeting the airport because of the drones stationed there.
“Personally, I believe that, initially, their objective is to weaken Niger because it is, after all, the strongest of the three countries, where they have not managed to seize or control any territory,” he added.
“And the primary objective is to seek to weaken the Nigerien state militarily so that they can more easily target the other two.
Niger’s armed forces have prevented jihadist groups from carving out strongholds in the country, Garba said. He linked that to 12 years of political stability, security and development, as well as progress in the military sphere.
“It will not be at all easy for the terrorists to gain control of an area in Niger, as they have done in Burkina Faso and Mali,” Garba said.
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Military response
The attack on Niamey airport came one day after an attack on the Banibangou military base in the Tillabéri region of Niger on 17 June. Garba said a direct link between the two attacks could not be established and repeated that he did not believe there was coordination between the two groups.
But he said both groups shared the same objective of weakening the state. He also said the targetting of Tillabéri was easier because security on the Malian and Burkinabé sides of the border was not strong enough.
The Nigerien military’s resistance showed that the army had been able to organise itself, Garba said, adding that changes in deployment and planning may have contributed to the result and the repelling of the airport attack was a success for the Nigerien army.
He contrasted it with the January attack, when Russian partners were thanked by the military junta after Russian assistance was presented as decisive.
This time, the response came from Nigerien soldiers, Garba said. “And it shows once again that the Nigerien army is indeed capable of ensuring the security of the state.”
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Benin border agreement
Meanwhile, General Abdourahamane Tiani – Niger’s junta leader and de facto head of state – has accused France of being behind the latest attack, as he did in January.
“France has been accused of being behind the terrorists for two and a half years now,” Garba said. “I think the most important thing for the junta is to ensure that the state can guarantee its own security and that of its citizens. I don’t see the point of these accusations, of this rhetoric. I don’t see what added value it brings… there are families in mourning, and an entire people suffering.”
In January, Tiani also accused Benin of involvement, but he did not repeat that claim this time. The shift followed a recent visit to Niamey by Benin’s new president, Romuald Wadagni, and comes as both countries look to reopen their border.
A committee set up to examine the border issue has submitted its report, and signs point towards the frontier reopening, Garba said. The closure has weighed heavily on families, traders and community leaders on both sides, especially in border areas where daily life depends on cross-border trade and movement.
It has also hit the port of Cotonou, which has lost around a third of its Niger-linked traffic, Garba said. But he said the cost was even greater for landlocked Niger, where the closure has pushed up inflation and made consumers pay more for basic goods.
Thousands of jobs and modest incomes linked to the port are also at risk, including those of Nigerien transport workers. Meanwhile, a black market has developed along the River Niger near Gaya, where goods are still getting through illegally.
“I think we need to put a stop to all of this; the people are waiting for the border to open so that the prices of basic necessities can really come down, and also so that what we call ‘freight forwarders’ here can get back to work,” Garba said.
This article has been adapted from an original interview in French by RFI’s Christophe Boisbouvier