Month-end data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that fuel price recoveries have sunk even further, lining motorists up for a bigger-than-expected hike next week.
The latest data shows that petrol price recoveries have dropped even deeper into the red, now sitting between -18 cents per litre and -21 cents per litre.
Diesel recoveries have also deteriorated since the middle of the month, now sitting between -62 cents per litre and -65 cents per litre.
These underrecoveries point to all but guaranteed price hikes next week, when price changes come into effect on Wednesday, 4 March 2026.
The Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources will announce the official changes in the coming days.
These are the expected changes at month-end based on CEF data:
- Petrol 93: increase of 18 cents per litre
- Petrol 95: increase of 21 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): increase of 62 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): increase of 65 cents per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: increase of 45 cents per litre
The main driver behind the weaker recoveries is the higher global oil price, which inflates the costs of international petroleum products.
South Africa does not refine its petroleum locally and imports the products. Fortunately, because the rand is stronger against the dollar, the price hikes have been offset by lower import costs.
Higher product prices have contributed around -36 cents per litre to petrol recoveries and around -83 cents per litre to diesel recoveries.
The stronger rand has contributed around +18 cents per litre, offsetting the negatives.
Global oil prices have moved higher this month as tensions mounted between the United States and Iran, with the former amassing a military presence in the Middle East.
Oil prices were under $58 a barrel at the beginning of the year, but shot up past $70 a barrel as the United States executed its highly unpredictable brand of foreign policy. Prices are currently around $72 a barrel.
The US and Iran agreed to more nuclear talks next week, but the huge deployment of American forces in the Middle East is keeping the market on edge.
“Oil prices remain higher this year as concerns about a potential US strike on Iran help to offset broader glut expectations.”
“Traders will be keenly watching a scheduled OPEC+ supply meeting on Sunday, as conflict risks cloud the outlook,” Bloomberg analysts said.
The rand is standing strong
Running counter to the higher oil price is the stronger rand, which has shown significant resilience over the last year and moved into strengthening in its own right in 2026.
Following the 2026 Budget Speech delivered on Wednesday, the rand has maintained its stronger position against the dollar.
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana delivered a budget that analysts said signals the government’s continued commitment to restoring the country’s fiscal sustainability.
The talk of a fiscal anchor “resonated with operators and investors”, said Adam Phillips, treasury specialist at Umkhulu Treasury, with the rand appreciating to R15.83/$ at the time.
Amid other economic data, as well as markets waiting for monthly economic data from the central bank and National Treasury, the rand has settled around R15.90/$.
This continues to put the rand in its “fair value” range, and at its strongest position against the dollar in almost four years.
However, despite the market’s warm reaction to the budget, motorists will still be taking a hit.
Godongwana announced a 21-cent-per-litre hike in fuel taxes in the budget, which will be added to petrol and diesel prices from April.
