Magical Kenya Open preview and best bets

• Karen takes over hosting duties from Muthaiga
• Angel Ayora headlines field in absence of Reed
• Past champion features among selections

Golf betting tips: Magical Kenya Open

3pts e.w. Thriston Lawrence at 22/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

2pts e.w. Alex Fitzpatrick at 33/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. J.C. Ritchie at 40/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Guido Migliozzi at 60/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

0.5pt e.w. Benjamin Follett-Smith at 190/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt double Ayora and Scottie Scheffler in the Genesis at 50/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook | Free bets

Race to Dubai leader Patrick Reed takes a week off to give the rest a chance in the Magical Kenya Open, which returns to Karen Country Club for the first time in five years.

Named after Karen Blixen, the author of Out Of Africa on whose land this course was built, Karen is similar to Muthaiga insofar as it is a relic of colonialism, designed to be tight, tree-lined and what we might call classical in nature. But it is different, and has played differently, in the way that it invites players to be more aggressive off the tee, cutting par-fours down to size in the thin air of Nairobi.

Daniel van Tonder did so successfully when capturing the Savannah Classic here in 2021, when Sam Horsfield could’ve won but for butchering the final hole and Calum Hill likewise. A week earlier, the same course had hosted this event and even the comparatively short-hitting Justin Harding was able to get on the front foot, with powerful quartet Kurt Kitayama, Pep Angles, Dean Burmester and Horsfield close behind.

All of this should be music to the ears of Angel Ayora, 20th at Muthaiga but far more suited to this assignment. He’s since produced correlating form in the Soudal Open (11th) and European Masters (8th), again struck his ball well when fifth in Qatar last time, and with neither Reed nor Jayden Schaper in the field is very much the standout.

To what extent that’s reflected in 12/1 is hard to say but I think it’s a very fair price. Ayora was 12/1 for the Alfred Dunhill Championship towards the end of last year, which featured Schaper, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Burmester, Branden Grace and Louis Oosthuizen, plus John Parry and Aldrich Potgieter. Whether that was right or wrong, this absolutely must be easier.

As you’ll see from the above, I’ve in the end elected to double Ayora with world number one Scottie Scheffler, with the prospects of both favourites winning this week surely a little better than 50/1. But anyone considering the Spaniard on his own won’t find any serious negatives on these pages. He’s going to the very top, this is the weakest event he’s played in a long time, and the course presents opportunities to attack.

To round back to Karen, it should be noted that the routing has changed. I believe the nines have been switched, but with holes 10-12 effectively the seventh, eighth and ninth from 2021, and holes 13-18 therefore holes one to six. One of three par-fives has been changed to a par four so the to-par scoring should come down a notch, while there has been some general maintenance work to make this place more tour-ready.

Ultimately though the skills required shouldn’t change and as far as dangers to Ayora go, my view is that THRISTON LAWRENCE stands head and shoulders above the rest.

Hill’s recent form and the very solid start to the year Hennie du Plessis has produced make them likeable enough candidates along with the ever-reliable Joost Luiten and the classy Antoine Rozner, but Lawrence is a good step or two ahead of them when it comes to his credentials for this.

In part, that’s because of where else he’s thrived. Two wins at Crans and one at Eichenried could hardly fit in better, with altitude in play at both and the former always having been a strong guide to the Kenya Open. Sebastian Soderberg has won at both courses but players like Adri Arnaus, Guido Migliozzi, Connor Syme, Kalle Samooja and Louis de Jager really help strengthen ties between them.

Eichenried works through Syme, Harding, van Tonder, Horsfield, Soderberg, Migliozzi and others such as Romain Langasque and this week’s defending champion, Jacques Kruyswijk, while I’d throw the Belfry into the mix too. Lawrence was runner-up there the year before last. Oh and then there’s Rinkven, home of the Soudal Open, where he was fourth last year.

Lawrence has more tree-lined form at Delhi (third behind Tommy Fleetwood) and Wentworth (beaten in a play-off featuring Billy Horschel and Rory McIlroy) and both his Joburg Open win and subsequent contending effort at Houghton further support the idea that Karen, where he’s been seventh on the Sunshine Tour, ought to be ideal.

Missing the cut here in 2021 shouldn’t be considered a big issue as he was a Sunshine Tour player who would miss eight in 11 starts from spring through to autumn that year, and he returns now a five-time DP World Tour winner, all of them at altitude, all of them in some way relevant to this.

So, we’re left to ask whether his game is in the required shape and I’d say yes, it is. Lawrence began the year with 10th place in the Dubai Invitational, which again featured the likes of McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood and Shane Lowry, before his customary missed cut in the Dubai Desert Classic. For whatever reason he hates it there, having missed the cut in all six tries, so it’s really nothing to dwell upon.

Second in the 2022 Kenya Open when seemingly out of form and 19th on his sole subsequent start when he’d gone MC-MC-49 after some good golf in the Dubai Invitational, Lawrence can bounce back quickly yet again, and prove that Karen is an even better fit than Muthaiga proved to be.

Next up, and with a degree of trepidation, is ALEX FITZPATRICK.

That trepidation comes from the fact I’ve not quite landed on him at the right time so far in his burgeoning career, but on none of the previous occasions have I felt quite so compelled by the many positives relating to Matt’s younger brother.

The reason Fitzpatrick has been on the radar for a while now is that he’s clearly playing very well, without always finishing the job off. He’s gained strokes off the tee in seven of his last nine starts, on approach in 10 of his last 11, around the green in nine of those 11, but too often has been let down a little by his putter.

Despite some issues with that club he has six top-25 finishes in his last 10, including third behind Fleetwood in India and 19th in the high-class Dubai Desert Classic, so to my eye Fitzpatrick looks every inch the type of player to take full advantage of the drop in grade either here, in South Africa, or in India over the coming weeks.

And I think this is as good a place as any. Fitzpatrick has been fifth and sixth at Crans, was 19th on his sole start at Muthaiga, and also has eighth at the Belfry and 11th in Belgium to his name. These are the courses I believe correlate best bar Eichenried, which he’s not managed to crack as yet, while his HotelPlanner Tour win came at the fiddly, tight St Mellion, another handy clue.

Known for his brilliant short-game and high-class iron play when firing, there’s a slight chance Muthaiga would’ve been even more suitable but there’s no reason Karen won’t work for a player who missed the cut by a shot after an excellent second round in Doha last time.

Fitzpatrick therefore is narrowly preferred to Casey Jarvis, who was a bit disappointing on the HotelPlanner Tour last week but does have a top-10 finish at Crans and might prefer this to Muthaiga, where he showed promise without looking perfectly at home.

Niklas Norgaard is the player who has given me the most to think about as he’s a big-hitter with the right course profile. The Dane has rounds of 61 and 64 from just eight at Crans, won at the Belfry two years ago having been runner-up in Belgium, and has improved his approach play lately. That all adds up to a tempting profile but the price just doesn’t appeal enough after a largely poor Middle East swing.

The case for GUIDO MIGLIOZZI is broadly similar and he’s preferred at twice the price.

Like Norgaard, Migliozzi’s approach play has turned a corner lately and that’s absolutely key. Such improvement preceded his surprise fifth place in Paris last autumn, just as it had his KLM Open win in 2024, just as it had his Open de France victory in 2022. And it was fundamental to all the success he enjoyed throughout his rookie season in 2019.

That success included a win here, when he showed exactly what aggression can do at Karen, and a win at Rinkven, now home of the Soudal Open. Also 10th at Eichenried and with an excellent record at Crans, he’s one of the key players when it comes to tying these courses together.

Migliozzi was 12th despite a slow start when defending his title, which he’d had to wait an extra year to do, and having gone MC-MC-MC at Muthaiga he’s going to be thrilled to be returning to Karen at last.

It comes at a time when he’s started to show just enough to suggest that he can contend, particularly as this is a place where a wayward driver can ride their luck. Granted a bit of that, the Italian can threaten what would be his fifth DP World Tour title.

Juan the man

Were we still at Muthaiga then Aussie trio David Micheluzzi, Anthony Quayle and Jason Scrivener might’ve made more appeal, although the former’s second place at Eichenried combined with a back-to-form top-10 last time did earn a second glance. Scrivener we know all about and winning will be difficult, but keep an eye on the highly talented Quayle, who finally seems to be realising how good he could be.

On balance though he’s one for another day and I prefer to add another South African, with JC RITCHIE the pick.

Cases can be made for Jarvis and Jacques Kruyswijk along with course specialist van Tonder, but Ritchie looks primed to go really well now dropping in grade and returning to something more familiar.

Ritchie played well in each of his first four starts this season before missing the cut in Qatar, but like Fitzpatrick that came by a single shot after an excellent second round. Before it he’d been 34th in Bahrain, which promised to be so much better as he was inside the top five towards the end of round three before a disaster at the 17th, and 33rd in the Dubai Desert Classic, a Rolex Series event.

Ninth in Mauritius before Christmas came despite a poor first round and a week earlier he’d sat fifth entering the final round of the Alfred Dunhill Championship, so he really is the embodiment of a player showing loads of promise without quite seeing it through.

A three-time winner on the HotelPlanner Tour last season, it’s significant that those came outside of Africa as we already knew he was prolific on home soil, but returning to Africa can only be a positive as far as his short-term prospects go. He ought to feel right at home, especially as he grew up at comparable altitude, and that could be all it takes to put four rounds together.

Ritchie hasn’t played much golf at the courses I like as form guides but what he has offers promise, having finished mid-pack in both starts at Eichenried, bagged a top-10 at the Belfry, been 24th in one start at Crans which happened to be the strongest renewal of that event in years, and shot rounds of 65 and 66 at Rinkven too.

He also has a couple of top-10s here from the Karen Masters, back towards the start of his Sunshine Tour career, and wasn’t anything like the player he is now when the DP World Tour came here in 2021. Hopefully he can show it, as this is a player with all the tools to win at this level, one who reminds me a bit of the defending champion and can hopefully follow his lead.

Finally, I do think BENJAMIN FOLLETT-SMITH is pretty interesting at massive odds.

The downside is that this is a player prone to very bad days at the office and whose best form so far suggests he’s not quite up to this level, which admittedly is not a compelling start to the argument.

But he is bang in-form, having won on the HotelPlanner Tour at the beginning of the year and shot 60 in round one last week before settling for ninth place. Crucially, in-between those two he went MC-24 on the DP World Tour, hitting the ball well, particularly in Qatar where he ranked 16th in strokes-gained tee-to-green.

Follett-Smith referenced that last week, saying: “My game is trending. Last week in Qatar, tee-to-green, I was really good. Unfortunately, I just didn’t make enough putts. The guys are extremely good, so you must have everything going for you to compete.”

Historically a good putter and certainly powerful, I’ve a feeling Karen sets up well for him and that’s somewhat supported by 12th place in the Karen Masters back in 2018, when he was seldom threatening even on the Sunshine Tour.

And while his DP World Tour form remains limited, my eye is drawn to the fact that he sat fourth after round one, 10th at halfway and still 11th through 54 holes of the European Masters won by Lawrence in August. In fact, much of his best golf at this level has involved altitude of some kind, either in Crans, in Prague, or in Madrid.

That win in January came at altitude in Johannesburg (beating a Karen winner) and hailing from Harare, it makes sense that he’s comfortable in conditions some will find confounding. That plus his recent play makes him one I want to chance at three-figure prices.

Posted at 20:00 GMT on 16/02/26

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