2
The number of aspirants for the Ogun State governorship election is increasing by the day. Senator Iyabo Obasanjo’s recent declaration of interest for the race further adds to the list. She threw her hat into the ring, opting to contest on the platform of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). This marks her return to the active politics after a 15-year hiatus. She cited sustained pressure from supporters as the driving force behind her decision to re-enter politics. Senator Iyabo Obasanjo, a former Ogun State Commissioner for Health, who was previously a member of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), said her decision to join the APC was influenced by extensive consultations and her comfort with key stakeholders in the party. This transition is particularly striking given her father’s historical role as the Grand Patron and moral compass of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), as well as his public opposition to the APC in recent years. Whatever her motivation, analysts believe she would face the political backlash of her father’s anti-APC stance. Former President Olusegun Obasanjo has used the ADC and his Coalition for Nigeria Movement as a vehicle to challenge what he has described as the failures of the ruling APC. Long-standing APC members in Ogun State, particularly those from the former ACN wing, keep the memory of the fierce battles with the Obasanjo-led PDP in the late 2000s. They, therefore, view his daughter’s entry as an invasion of fair-weather politicians. Some cynical observers suggest this move ensures the Obasanjo family maintains influence regardless of which party wins. If the APC retains power, Iyabo is positioned; if an opposition coalition like ADC/PDP gains ground, her father remains their ideological leader. The outcome of this intriguing power permutation is in the womb of time.
On a broader outlook, the 2027 race is particularly high-stakes because Governor Dapo Abiodun will be completing his second term, leaving no incumbent on the ballot. This has triggered an early rush of aspirants across the three senatorial districts. To be sure, the APC has not yet opened the formal window for Expression of Interest forms, so many of these entries remain in the consultative and grassroots mobilization phase. Even then, the competition is largely defined by the Yewa-Awori agenda (Ogun West), which has never produced a governor, versus the established power bases in Ogun East and Ogun Central. With notable figures like Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola (Yayi) tacitly vying for the governorship ticket, Obasanjo’s declaration adds fresh momentum to an already crowded field of aspirants.
While Senator Obasanjo has the name recognition and the pedigree, the Ogun West Initiative is currently the most organized political lobby in the state. For her to succeed, she will need to convince the APC leadership that her candidacy offers a unique national appeal that outweighs the local demand for zoning to the West. More than ever before, the Ogun West (Yewa-Awori) caucus is now highly organised. There is a risk of backlash if the APC leadership is seen as favouring a high-profile returnee from the Central district, an erstwhile PDP Chieftain, over a candidate from a zone that has never held the governorship.
Senator Adeola remains the symbol of agitation of the Yewa/Awori people for power shift to Ogun West. His candidacy resonates among stakeholders across the three senatorial districts.
For some reasons, the Ogun APC Elders’ Council has maintained a strategic and somewhat cautious stance, refraining from formally adopting a rigid zoning policy for the 2027 governorship primaries. Although the APC leadership in Ogun State, guided by the Elders’ Council, has not shut the door on any of the three senatorial districts, there is a strong moral undertone favouring Ogun West (Yewa-Awori). The Council has signaled that while they recognize the equity argument for Ogun West, they are prioritizing party unity and electability of candidate. Similarly, Governor Abiodun has been careful not to publicly anoint a successor zone, though he has frequently met with leaders from the Ogun West Initiative. Understandably, the Council’s current strategy is to manage the ambitions of heavyweights like Senator Solomon Olamilekan (Yayi) and Gboyega Nasir Isiaka without causing a premature fracture in the party.
All the same, Adeola towers above other aspirants in terms of electability. It then simply means that if the Council formally zones the seat to the West, they effectively disqualify Iyabo Obasanjo (Central) before the race even begins.
While there is nothing wrong with members of the Council projecting a merit-based primary, it is equally important to consider the principles of justice, fairness, and equity in any decision making. With the 2027 election shaping up as a highly competitive race, the party cannot afford to prioritise exclusive policy of the past over a zone that has suffered marginalization for 50 years, particularly having a candidate of Adeola’s pedigree in the race.
Senator Adeola, popularly known as Yayi, is undeniably the pivot around which the 2027 Ogun West agitation rotates. His candidacy is no longer just a Yewa-Awori project—it has evolved into a statewide phenomenon that poses a significant challenge to other aspirants, including Senator Iyabo Obasanjo. His candidacy resonates across the three districts.
Unlike traditional agitation in which candidates rely solely on regional sentiment, Adeola has spent the last few years building a tangible track record in Ogun West that acts as a blueprint for the whole state. His supporters in Ogun East and Ogun Central point to his empowerment initiatives and legislative influence in the Senate as evidence that he is a performer who can deliver state-wide development.
In terms of financial War Chest, it is widely acknowledged in political circles that Adeola possesses one of the most robust campaign structures in the country. This financial and organizational readiness makes him a safe bet for APC stakeholders who prioritize winning over sentiment.
In his consultations and engagement with stakeholders, Adeola hasn’t limited himself to his home base. He has successfully courted the Ogun State political class by securing high-level endorsements. The recent affirmation from the Senate Leader, Senator Opeyemi Bamidele, and various professional groups, signals that his candidacy has national backing from the APC-core.
With Governor Abiodun from Ogun East departing, there is a natural desire for a strong successor who can maintain the party’s grip on power. Many elders in Ogun Central where Iyabo Obasanjo is based are reportedly torn between regional loyalty and the Yayi momentum.
Currently, the Yewa-Awori agitation has reached a fever pitch. Stakeholders across all zones are increasingly acknowledging that denying Ogun West the governorship for another cycle could lead to a permanent fracture in the state’s social fabric.
Even politicians in both the Ogun Central and East admit that fairness dictates a shift. Adeola has successfully positioned himself as the only candidate from the West with the requisite clout and spread to finally break that 50-year jinx.
The agitation for an Ogun West governorship, the Yewa-Awori agenda, is built on a foundation of historical data and political ethics. Stakeholders from the zone argue that for the sake of the state’s internal stability and democratic health, the 2027 election must be a corrective one. The primary argument is one of arithmetic and fairness. Since Ogun State was created on February 3, 1976, the governorship has rotated exclusively between the other two senatorial districts. While Ogun Central (Egba) has produced Chief Olusegun Osoba and Senator Ibikunle Amosun and Ogun East (Ijebu/Remo) Chief Bisi Onabanjo, Otunba Gbenga Daniel, and the incumbent, Prince Dapo Abiodun,
Ogun West (Yewa-Awori) has produced zero governors. Continuing this exclusion effectively renders the people of Ogun West second-class citizens in their own state. The injustice can no longer stand. It hurts people’s sensibility that Ogun West which is the state’s industrial and commercial powerhouse lacks the political authority to prioritize its own needs. The zone hosts the Agbara Industrial Estate, one of the largest in West Africa, contributing a massive chunk of the state’s Internally Generated Revenue (IGR). It contains the Idiroko International Border, a critical gateway for national and state trade. Yet, while the zone feeds the state, its infrastructure, particularly the roads in Ota and Yewa, remains notoriously neglected because the power of the purse sits with governors from other districts.
Supporters like the Ogun West Initiative have vehemently argued that zoning is not just a favour but a necessity for party unity. They warn that another imposition from the Central or East could lead to a massive protest vote or a shift in loyalty to an opposition party (like the ADC or PDP) that is willing to field a West candidate.
There is a growing sense of justice that if the party wants a smooth transition in 2027, it must acknowledge the West’s turn to prevent the “Yayi” (Senator Adeola) movement from becoming a full-blown rebellion. Unlike before, politicians in the West are increasingly leveraging their voting numbers. Voting records show that Ado-Odo/Ota Local Government Area in Ogun West consistently records some of the highest voter turnouts and registration numbers in the state. Based on that realization, the West’s leaders are signaling that they will no longer provide a bulk vote to candidates from other zones unless a reciprocal agreement is reached.
This is where Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola comes in. He is viewed as the solution to the agitation because he has the financial resources, national clout, and legislative track record to convince the other two districts that a West candidate isn’t just a pity pick, but a capable leader for the entire state.
For Ogun West stakeholders, the shift from the divisive politics of the past to a unified front is not just a preference—it is being treated as a survival strategy for the 2027 governorship race. In previous cycles, notably 2011 and 2019, Ogun West’s chances were famously sabotaged by internal fragmentation, where multiple strong candidates from the zone split the vote, allowing candidates from the Central or East to win.
With the Yayi consensus, the agitation has largely moved away from multiple aspirants toward a singular focus on Adeola. The recent high-profile gatherings in Ilaro, the traditional headquarters of Yewaland, featuring national figures like Senate Leader Opeyemi Bamidele have sent a clear message: the West is consolidating.
Groups like the Ogun West Professionals and the Ogun West Initiative are actively lobbying other potential aspirants from the zone to collapse their structures into the Yayi Movement early to avoid the primary-day betrayals of the past. Stakeholders are now frequently citing two specific political tragedies as reasons to avoid division. One is the 2011 split when the West had a golden opportunity, but the emergence of multiple candidates, including Gboyega Nasir Isiaka and late Brig-General Adetunji Idowu Olurin (rtd) fragmented the Yewa vote. In 2019 power rivalry, the split between the APC mainstream and the APM backed by then-Governor Amosun) again left the West vulnerable.
The current argument is that Ogun West must speak with one voice before approaching the negotiating table with the Egbas and Ijebus. Ogun West Initiative led by figures like Bolaji Adeniji has pivoted from mere advocacy to strategic diplomacy. There is an ongoing effort to ensure that by the time the APC National Working Committee calls for expressions of interest, Ogun West presents a single, undisputed frontrunner.
Above all, the Yewa Traditional Council is also being engaged to act as a vetting committee to discourage spoiler candidates from entering the race just to weaken the zone’s primary contender. As history beckons, let us all support Adeola’s governorship ambition to break the 50-year jinx.
Fatunmbi writes from Okeagbede, in Imeko-Afon LGA of Ogun state
