On top of the Foot and Mouth Disease outbreak hitting beef prices in South Africa, consumers and retailers have been warned that African Swine Fever (ASF) will hit pork prices in the coming months.
This follows recent communication to the trade from the South African Pork Producers’ Organisation (SAPPO), detailing the extent of disease outbreaks affecting commercial piggeries in the Free State, North West, KwaZulu-Natal and north-east of Pretoria.
According to Arnold Prinsloo, CEO of Eskort, the pork market is highly sensitive to even small supply disruptions.
“South Africa slaughters roughly 72,000 pigs per week across the formal and informal sectors. The formal market has lost approximately 7,000 pigs due to the combined impact of ASF and FMD outbreaks,” he said.
“While this represents a relatively small percentage of total supply, even a 2% shortage can drive price increases of around 10%. This is the reality of pork’s price elasticity.”
Pork prices have moved significantly in recent weeks, with wholesale prices rising from about R32 per kilogram to R40.
Further increases are expected as the effects of disease outbreaks work through the supply chain.
“Until recently, we were able to hold prices stable because the industry had surplus stock that served as a buffer,” Vosloo said.
“That buffer has now been depleted, and we’re seeing the same supply-and-demand dynamics that recently affected the beef industry.”
Eskort, which accounts for about 10% of South Africa’s pork market, has had no cases of ASF or FMD among its farmers.
“While our biosecurity measures have protected our operations to date, we remain vigilant,” Vosloo said. However, this does not mean the group is not impacted.
“Even though Eskort has not lost animals to these diseases, we operate in a broader market where supply and demand determine pricing. When the overall supply contracts, it affects pricing across the board.”
Bad news for inflation
SAPPO has confirmed that all pork entering the market through formal channels remains safe for consumption, as ASF and FMD are animal health diseases that pose no risk to human health.
Strict veterinary oversight and inspection protocols under the Meat Safety Act continue to ensure food safety.
The organisation is working closely with producers, abattoirs and state veterinary services to manage the outbreaks while maintaining market stability and consumer confidence.
Rising meat prices are one of the key drivers of inflation at present.
While overall inflation is stable around 3.5%, inflation data for food & non-alcoholic beverages (Food NAB) is higher.
In December 2025, Food NAB remained stable at 4.4% y/y, after ticking higher since the outbreak of FMD in mid-2025.
Headline inflation is expected to remain fairly stable for the rest of this year, but economists have flagged meat as a major risk factor.
In December, meat inflation continued its upward trajectory in Stats SA’s basket, rising to 12.6% from 12.2% in November.
Economists at Nedbank warned that the ongoing outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease in South Africa would keep pushing up meat prices for the months to come.
They warned that, on top of the past six months or so of large increases, consumers can expect double-digit meat price inflation to last until roughly April 2026.
