There is growing unease in President William Ruto’s camp as
ODM moves to stake major claims in its looming 2027 pre-election deal with the
ruling party.
The disquiet is more pronounced among Ruto’s Mt Kenya foot
soldiers, amid fears that the Orange Party’s power matrix will disturb the
established power dynamics.
The concerns spilt into the open during the Broad-Based
retreat in Naivasha, with the drama playing out in Ruto’s presence.
ODM is demanding a 50/50 sharing of government with UDA,
apart from being unconditionally handed the running mate slot.
Kisii Governor Simba Arati reportedly made the calls,
allegedly triggering a walkout by some Mt Kenya MPs during the retreat.
Gatundu South MP Gabriel Kagombe said it was difficult for
leaders who had supported Ruto from the beginning to accept a proposal that
appeared to diminish the position of Deputy President Kithure Kindiki.
“Imagine the deputy president seated there and the governor
for Kisii would ask that the deputy president no longer serves, and that
‘wakati wa kufanya kazi imeisha, ni wakati wa kutafuta kura’,” Kagombe said.
One lawmaker described the intervention as ‘a little
distasteful’.
The incident highlights the dilemma Ruto faces: drop Kindiki
as his second in command and face more rebellion from Mt Kenya, or retain him
and face uncertainty in ODM zones.
The demands by ODM were reportedly rejected as inappropriate
for the forum and should instead be taken to the coalition-building committee
being constituted by the two parties.
Tana River Senator Danson Mungatana denied assertions that
there was a walkout.
It is understood that there are fears the renewed pressure
could leave some of the President’s original supporters fighting for space.
The coalition-building committee is expected to negotiate
the structure of the ODM-UDA alliance, including its name, identity, slogan and
sharing of political positions.
On Monday, Ruto said Kenya Kwanza and ODM had agreed to move
beyond their cooperation in government and establish a formal political
coalition.
“After consultations within our respective parties and formations,
the Kenya Kwanza and the ODM have today formally resolved to develop a joint
manifesto for the next election and constitute a coalition to contest the 2027
general election together,” Ruto said.
He said the partnership, which began with the formation of
the Broad-Based Government, would now acquire a “clear political framework”
ahead of the 2027 polls.
“What began as cooperation in government will now become a
common political platform upon which we shall seek the mandate of the Kenyan
people in August next year,” he said.
But events at the meeting of leaders in Naivasha showed that
agreeing to work together may be easier than agreeing on how the spoils of the
alliance will be shared.
Kagombe warned that Kenya Kwanza politicians could not be
expected to remain in a coalition where they felt excluded from
decision-making.
“We must be represented at the table. We cannot be giving
our support and we are not at the table,” he said.
“The bare minimum is that we get what we want and if we
don’t, then we call it quits. This is politics. And in politics, it is about
interest and how we represent our people.”
He said Mt Kenya leaders could explore other political
options if their interests were ignored.
“If people are making coalitions, nothing stops us as Mt
Kenya from seeking a place elsewhere. It has been the politics since time
immemorial,” Kagombe said.
The warning introduces a new complication for Ruto, who has
been seeking to consolidate a broad-based political alliance capable of
carrying him into a second term.
ODM is understood to be seeking a stronger presence in
government and a meaningful role in determining the political architecture of
the coalition.
The party is also expected to push for a larger share of
elective and government positions as the two sides negotiate their joint
platform.
The negotiations could unsettle other Kenya Kwanza partners,
particularly Ford Kenya, which holds the influential position of Speaker of the
National Assembly through party leader Moses Wetang’ula.
ODM has previously sought the position, meaning the
coalition negotiations could reopen the question of who controls some of the
most powerful offices in Parliament.
ODM could also seek additional Cabinet representation and
other senior positions as part of the negotiations.
Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir, who is ODM deputy party
leader, confirmed that the party would take its interests to the negotiating
table, although he said the specifics had not been agreed.
He said Monday’s meeting was primarily about taking stock of
the government’s performance and agreeing on areas to prioritise in the 2027
election campaign.
“The meeting was to set action plans. It was to take stock
on how we have fared on the common issues we sought to pursue in the 2022
elections,” Nassir said.
“Our manifesto, which encompassed Baba’s vision, had issues
to do with agriculture, health and education.”
He said both parties would now develop their respective
proposals for the 2027 campaign before they are harmonised by the joint teams.
“The party leader of ODM and UDA will come up with a team to
do the negotiations. We intend to pursue our interests there. The negotiations
will define the coalition structure,” Nassir said.
The two parties have also agreed not to dissolve or merge
ODM and UDA as they enter the coalition, allowing each to retain its identity
and political structures.
“This arrangement is expected to make the negotiations more complicated
because both parties will have to balance the interests of their own supporters
with the demands of the new coalition,” Prof Olang Sana, a Maseno University
don, said.
The joint negotiating team will have five members from each
political formation, with the executive directors of ODM and UDA serving as
ex-officio members.
ODM nominated Isaac Wanuge, Mariam Abdulai, Leonida Kerubo
Omosa, engineer Carey Orege and Professor Bernard Mok.
Kenya Kwanza nominated Emmanuel Nzai, Dr Daniel Mwai,
Bramwell Simiyu, Mohammed Hassan and Dr Cecilia Ngetich.
The team will be expected to agree on the coalition’s name,
brand identity and slogan.
This is in addition to the separate team working on the framework
for developing a joint manifesto.
The size of Monday’s gathering underlined the political
weight of the new alliance.
More than 250 MPs, 24 governors, 48 senators and 24 deputy
governors attended the meeting, according to participants.
The leaders were also expected to receive a common narrative
on the government’s performance to be used in the 2027 campaign.
“We agreed that people subscribe to one language in
explaining the government’s scorecard,” a participant said.
But even as Ruto seeks to present the partnership as a broad
national coalition, the early signs point to a difficult balancing act.
For UDA and its original allies, the fear is that ODM’s
entry into the political equation could result in the redistribution of
positions and influence at a time when the ruling coalition is already
preparing for a highly competitive election.
The President will now have to keep ODM satisfied without
alienating the UDA grassroots and other parties that helped him win the 2022
election.
For ODM, the negotiations offer an opportunity to convert
its influence in the Broad-Based Government into a formal political arrangement
ahead of 2027.
INSTANT ANALYSIS
For Ruto’s original allies, the immediate question is how
much political space will remain for them once the new partnership is fully
negotiated. That question could determine whether the Ruto-ODM pact becomes the
foundation of a formidable 2027 coalition or the beginning of a fresh struggle
for power within the President’s camp.
