As South Africa heads to the end of the month, fuel prices are showing steep under-recoveries, with petrol users on the line for a R2 per litre hike.
The latest data from the Central Energy Fund, showing month-end projections, points to an under-recovery of between R1.77 and R2.09 per litre for petrol.
Diesel is showing a steeper under-recovery of around R5.42 per litre.
These month-end projections are a far stretch from the severe under-recoveries at the start of the period, where hikes were seen as high as R8 per litre and R17 per litre for petrol and diesel, respectively.
However, even with the sharp turn in recoveries throughout the month, motorists are still ending up with a negative balance.
The review period for price changes ends on Thursday (30 April). This means the price hike is all but cemented for when the changes take effect next Wednesday, 6 May 2026.
These are the projected levels for next week:
- Petrol 93: increase of R1.77 per litre
- Petrol 95: increase of R2.09 per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): increase of R5.42 per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): increase of R5.43 per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: increase of R4.60 per litre
The CEF does not provide daily snapshot data for LP Gas, so it is not currently possible to provide an expected price for the coming month.
A small consolation in the data is that, even with a R2 per litre increase, petrol prices will not reach their highest point on record.
The highest Petrol 95 has ever reached was R26.74 per litre in July 2022. At the current projection, pricing would be at R25.45 per litre in May.
The previous record for the per-litre wholesale diesel price was R25.53 in July 2022. This was surpassed in April, where prices hit R26.11 per litre.
At the current trajectory, a R5.40+ price hike would push prices past the R30 per litre mark to hit around R31.50.
Diesel (0.005%) wholesale daily projections (for May 2026)
Uncertainty ahead
The consolation for petrol users comes with at least two major caveats.
The May projection doesn’t account for any changes to the slate levy, which could further raise prices next month.
The slate levy is a self-adjusting mechanism that manages the deficit or surplus in the fuel price account.
It acts as a temporary buffer to compensate oil companies when international fuel prices increase faster than domestic pump prices, with the levy added to fuel costs when the account goes into a deficit.
With the sharp fluctuations in global oil prices in March and April, the mechanism is likely to kick in for May.
Another caveat for the data is that recoveries may continue to show increases for the months ahead, with current oil prices pushing above $110 a barrel once again.
The Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources and Treasury have announced that the R3.00 per litre relief offered in April will be extended for another month to May.
In addition, the fuel levy for diesel will be cut completely, extending the relief to R3.93 per litre for the month.
However, these levies will be re-added, in full, for the price adjustment in June. This means that motorists can expect a R3.00 per litre and R3.93 per litre baseline increase for petrol and diesel that month.
Treasury noted that the cost of the relief for April was R6 billion, and the projected cost for May is R11.2 billion, taking the total to R17.2 billion.
The relief measure was designed to be fiscally neutral, and the government will implement mechanisms to recoup the foregone revenue within the fiscal framework approved during the 2026 Budget.
(Update: this article has been updated to reflect the extension of the fuel price relief to June 2026)
