By Dr Philip Chebunet
Until recently, Azimio La Umoja–One Kenya Coalition existed largely in name rather than in practice.
For months, the coalition has been conspicuously absent from the public arena, marked by a lack of grassroots activity, inconsistent messaging, and no discernible political direction. In Kenya’s competitive political environment, prolonged silence is rarely neutral; it is often interpreted as political death.
Coalitions that fail to mobilise and engage consistently lose relevance quickly, and Azimio appears to have fallen into this trap.
Its decline has been accelerated by the ruling United Democratic Alliance’s overt and subtle courting of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). Historically, ODM has been Azimio’s backbone – not merely as a constituent party, but as a mass mobilisation machine with deep emotional and grassroots roots.
Once ODM signals cooperation with the ruling establishment, even without a formal defection, Azimio is stripped of its core pillar. Perception matters in politics, and the perception of collaboration alone fatally undermines Azimio’s credibility as an opposition force.
Efforts to rebrand the opposition under a “United Opposition” banner are further complicated by leadership contradictions. Dominant political figures such as Rigathi Gachagua do not naturally fit into collective leadership frameworks.
Effective opposition politics demands compromise, restraint, and consensus-building. When leading personalities are unwilling or unable to subordinate personal ambition to shared leadership, unity becomes elusive and coalitions fracture before they mature.
The opposition space is also crowded with confrontational voices whose politics relies more on intimidation and noise than organisation and persuasion. Kenya’s electoral history shows that political bullying rarely translates into votes.
While such figures may dominate headlines and social media discourse, they struggle to build broad, inclusive alliances capable of winning national elections.
Most critically, Azimio has lost touch with the grassroots. There is no coherent economic message resonating at the ward level, no visible organisers, and no trusted voices consistently articulating the coalition’s agenda on the ground.
In contrast, the government maintains constant visibility through development tours, local administration networks, and sustained engagement. In the absence of a credible and present opposition, voters gravitate towards those who appear active, even when dissatisfied.
Taken together, these dynamics suggest that Azimio, in its current form, is no longer a viable political vehicle. This does not signal the end of opposition politics in Kenya, but it does point to the urgent need for a new structure, a different leadership model, and a genuinely grassroots-driven movement ahead of 2027.
Coalitions do not survive on history or symbolism alone; they endure through presence, discipline, and a deep connection with ordinary citizens.
Dr Philip Chebunet is a Lecturer and Political Communication Expert
