Fuel prices: How 15% drop in global oil prices could bring relief at the pump

Kenyan motorists could receive relief at the pump in the upcoming fuel price review after international crude oil prices dropped by nearly 15 per cent, raising expectations of lower petrol, diesel and kerosene prices.

The decline comes a month after the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) announced significant increases in fuel prices on October 14, 2026, pushing the cost of petroleum products to some of the highest levels recorded in recent months.

According to the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) Weekly Bulletin released on November 6, 2026, Murban crude oil prices declined to Ksh12,224.44 (USD94.04) per barrel on November 5, 2026, down from Ksh14,354.60 (USD110.46) on October 29, 2026.

This represented a 14.9 per cent drop within a week, following the US mid-term elections and expectations of reduced risks of disruptions to oil supplies from the Middle East.

“Murban crude oil prices declined to USD 94.04 per barrel on November 5, 2026, from USD 110.46 per barrel on October 29, 2026, after the U.S. midterm elections and expectations of a lower risk of disruption to oil supply from the Middle East,” CBK stated.

The development could ease pressure on local fuel prices when EPRA announces its next monthly review, which will take effect from November 15 to December 14.

During its October 14, 2026, review, EPRA raised super petrol prices by Ksh12.93 per litre, diesel by Ksh9.90 and kerosene by Ksh28.49.

The adjustments pushed Nairobi’s maximum retail prices to Ksh226.96 for super petrol, Ksh227.76 for diesel and Ksh219.87 for kerosene.

The increases reflected higher average landed costs of imported petroleum products during the preceding assessment period, leaving motorists and businesses facing increased operating expenses.

The anticipated November reduction could therefore offer some relief following the sharp increases experienced during the previous pricing cycle.

A reduction in diesel prices could particularly benefit public transport operators, long-distance truck drivers and businesses that depend on road transport to move goods across the country.

Lower fuel expenses could ease operating costs in the transport sector, potentially reducing pressure on fares and the cost of distributing commodities.

Households could also benefit if cheaper petroleum products translate into lower transportation and production costs, particularly for food and other essential goods.

However, any reduction in pump prices may not immediately translate into cheaper public transport fares or lower commodity prices, as these costs are influenced by several other factors.

Despite the nearly 15 per cent decline in international crude oil prices, Kenyan motorists should not expect a similar reduction in local pump prices.

This is because EPRA calculates monthly maximum retail prices using the average landed costs of imported petroleum products over the relevant assessment period rather than international crude prices recorded on a single day.

Other components, including taxes, levies, distribution costs and the exchange rate, also influence the final pump prices.

The timing of the international oil price decline will therefore determine how much of the reduction is reflected in the November review.

The stability of the Kenya shilling could further support the prospect of lower fuel prices.

CBK data showed that the local currency traded at Ksh129.96 against the US dollar on November 5, unchanged from October 29, 2026.

The exchange rate is important because petroleum imports are paid for in foreign currency, meaning a stable shilling could help prevent exchange rate fluctuations from offsetting the benefits of cheaper international oil.

Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi has also previously indicated that the government intends to utilise the Petroleum Development Levy stabilisation fund during the November review to cushion consumers against high fuel prices.

The government’s decision on the fund could influence the final pump prices alongside the movement in international oil costs.

EPRA is expected to announce the next maximum retail prices before the current cycle expires on November 14, with motorists hoping the nearly 15 per cent decline in global oil prices will translate into meaningful relief at the pump from November 15.