TIFA: Two-thirds of Kenyans say their economic situation has worsened under Ruto’s rule

A new national survey by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) Research has found that 66 per cent of Kenyans say their personal or household economic situation has deteriorated since the 2022 general election, while only 12 per cent report an improvement, a finding that paints a bleak picture of household finances nearly four years into President William Ruto’s first term.

The survey released on Wednesday, September 9, 2026, TIFA’s second release from its June 2026 national poll, was conducted through face-to-face household interviews with 2,048 randomly selected adults across all 47 counties between June 13 and 22, 2026. It carries a margin of error of ±2.18 per cent.

A worsening mood, not an improving one

Asked directly whether their personal economic situation or that of their family is better, worse, or about the same as it was before the last election, 65 per cent of respondents said “worse”, 23 per cent said “about the same”, and just 12 per cent said “better”.

A further breakdown of the same question, phrased slightly differently in a companion chart, put the “worse off” figure at 66 per cent, with only 12 per cent reporting improvement.

The trend has been remarkably stable, and stubbornly negative, since TIFA began tracking it in May 2025:

• May 2025: 75 per cent worse off, 10 per cent better off
• August 2025: 70 per cent worse off, 10 per cent better off
• November 2025: 67 per cent worse off, 15 per cent better off
• May 2026: 64 per cent worse off, 19 per cent better off
• June 2026: 65 per cent worse off, 12 per cent better off

While the proportion reporting a worsened situation has eased slightly from the 75 per cent recorded in May 2025, TIFA researchers caution that there has been “no (statistically significant) change” since November 2025. More strikingly, the share of Kenyans reporting an actual improvement in their finances has fallen to its lowest level since August 2025, even as the “worse off” numbers ticked down.

“With some two-thirds of Kenyans indicating a worsening of their economic situation, unless this changes over the next year, it could be challenging for all politicians seeking re-election, especially those identified with the incumbent government,” the report states.

Regional pain, felt almost everywhere

The sense of economic decline is not confined to any one part of the country. Majorities in all nine of TIFA’s sampling zones reported that their economic situation has worsened since 2022. The pain is most acute in Mt. Kenya (79 per cent worse off) and Western (74 per cent), followed by Lower Eastern and Nairobi (69 per cent each), South Rift (71 per cent), Coast (57 per cent), Western (74 per cent), and Central Rift (53 per cent).

Notably, even in the regions where support for the “Broad-Based Government” (BBG), the informal power-sharing arrangement between President Ruto’s UDA and the late Raila Odinga’s ODM, is strongest, majorities still report worsening finances: 58 per cent in Nyanza, 53 per cent in Central Rift, and 49 per cent in Northern Kenya.

Politics colours perception, but doesn’t erase the pain

The survey also found a clear partisan divide in how Kenyans interpret their own economic circumstances. Among supporters of the BBG, 50 per cent still say their economic situation has worsened since 2022 (with 19 per cent reporting improvement), compared with 71 per cent among BBG opponents (with only 8 per cent reporting improvement).

TIFA researchers say this gap suggests political alignment shapes, but does not fully explain, how Kenyans assess their finances.

“Additional data would be required to determine whether such contrasts reflect actual economic differences, or rather, are (mainly) a consequence of political bias,” the report notes.

A similar pattern emerged when respondents were asked about the economy more broadly, rather than their own households. Two-thirds of Kenyans (65 per cent) described the national economic situation as “very bad”, compared with just 2 per cent who called it “very good”. Even among BBG supporters, nearly 12 times as many rated the national economy as “very bad” (48 per cent) as “very good” (4 per cent).