Gachagua vs Uhuru: The battle for Mt Kenya after Ruto

But beneath the shared opposition to the President lies a more complicated contest — who gets to define Mt Kenya’s political direction after Ruto?

Mr Gachagua, who served as Dr Ruto’s deputy before his impeachment in October 2024, has aggressively positioned himself as the political voice of a region he says has been short-changed by the Kenya Kwanza administration.

The Democracy for the Citizen’s Party (DCP) leader’s argument is that Mt Kenya supported Dr Ruto overwhelmingly in 2022, but the political dividends promised to the region have not matched expectations.

The former deputy president has used his fallout with Dr Ruto to rebuild his political base, travelling extensively across the region and presenting himself as the politician capable of organising Mt Kenya into a formidable political bloc ahead of 2027.

Yet there is an obvious complication.

Although the former President has largely withdrawn from the day-to-day electoral contest, he remains Jubilee Party leader and Azimio la Umoja One Kenya coalition Council Chairman, a coalition he backed under the late Raila Odinga in the 2022 General Election.

Mr Kenyatta also retains political networks built over his decade in State House.

Political analysts contend that Mr Kenyatta’s influence among political leaders, his ability to shape alliances, financial muscle and his familiarity with the region’s political machinery ensure that he cannot easily be written out of the 2027 equation.

This creates an intriguing situation in that while Mr Gachagua and Mr Kenyatta may share opposition to Dr Ruto, they do not necessarily have identical political interests.

The issue became particularly visible after President Ruto launched an extraordinary attack on his predecessor.

“You know their sponsor and how I assisted him while in office, but he could not deliver on affordable housing, universal healthcare and education funding for our children. Now he is sponsoring his political puppets against me, but I will trounce them by a landslide margin,” Dr Ruto said.

The attack was significant not only because it brought Mr Kenyatta back into the centre of the political conversation, but also because it offered a glimpse into how the President views the former Head of State’s continuing influence.

Mr Kenyatta had denied claims of being an opposition sponsor.

“Kenyan’s will decide. If they say it’s Ruto… if they say its Kalonzo…if they say it’s Matiang’i…if they say its Sifuna; that’s how it will be. I don’t want to be called a sponsor,” Mr Kenyatta said during the anniversary of the late vice president Kijana Wamalwa, without mentioning Mr Gachagua’s name among potential 2027 presidential aspirants, despite the DCP leader’s insistence that he will be on the ballot even though he remains impeached.

For Mr Gachagua, however, analysts say that Mr Kenyatta’s political relevance presents a different question.

Can he mobilise the anti-Ruto sentiment in Mt Kenya and become the undisputed political authority of the region, or will Mr Kenyatta and the Jubilee networks retain enough influence to shape the eventual outcome?

There is, however, no public pronouncement by Mr Gachagua that he has openly declared political war on Mr Kenyatta.

Indeed, he has repeatedly spoken about consulting the former President.

But the political positioning of Mr Gachagua’s DCP and Jubilee has increasingly brought the two camps into the same political space.

The dispute surrounding President Ruto’s proposed beyond Vision 2030 initiative provided another window into the delicate relationship.

Mr Gachagua publicly cautioned Mr Kenyatta against accepting any position associated with the initiative, after suggestions emerged that the former President could be involved in leading its secretariat.

People close to Mr Kenyatta dismissed the suggestion, insisting that he had no arrangement with President Ruto.

Jubilee co-deputy leader Jeremiah Kioni was equally categorical.

“Those trying to do that, whoever they are, are just making desperate political attempts,” Mr Kioni said.

He also rejected attempts to associate Mr Kenyatta with some leaders from his administration who later joined the Ruto cabinet, saying they had made their own decisions.

The CSs are: Mutahi Kagwe (Agriculture), Lee Kinyanjui (Trade) and William Kabogo (ICT)

The Beyond Vision 2030 episode may have appeared to be a disagreement over an administrative position, but politically it was much bigger.

“For Mr Gachagua, keeping Mr Kenyatta firmly outside the Ruto camp is important. For Jubilee, maintaining the former President’s independence is equally critical,” argues advocate Chris Omore.

He says that the two positions converge on one point: “Uhuru should not become a political asset for Ruto.”

“But where they may diverge is what happens afterwards, and the irony of the current contest is difficult to miss.”

In 2022, Mr Gachagua and his allies were among the most vocal critics of Mr Kenyatta, portraying him as a leader who had abandoned Mt Kenya after choosing to work with the late ODM leader Raila Odinga.

Dr Ruto successfully exploited the resentment.

He presented himself as the politician who would restore Mt Kenya’s influence at the centre of government, while accusing Mr Kenyatta of neglecting the interests of the region.

The strategy worked spectacularly.

Mt Kenya voted overwhelmingly for the Kenya Kwanza presidential candidate.

Four years later, however, the political script has been dramatically reversed.

Dr Ruto is now facing disaffection in sections of the same region, while Mr Gachagua is presenting himself as the man who can reclaim the political influence that voters believe was lost.

“The former deputy president’s greatest political asset is therefore the same thing that could become his greatest vulnerability: the political vacuum created by the collapse of the Ruto-Mt Kenya alliance and he wants to fill it,” adds Mr Omore.

He is, however, not alone; Mr Kenyatta has so far adopted a markedly different strategy from Gachagua, he says.

The pundit argues that while the former deputy president has embarked on an energetic political mobilisation campaign, Mr Kenyatta has largely concentrated on Jubilee and rebuilding its organisational structures.

In June, Mr Gachagua said he would seek Mr Kenyatta’s views after completing a 45-day consultation exercise at his Wamunyoro home.

He said he would take the views collected from Mt Kenya to the former President so that they could “compare notes” before he made his next political move.

The statement was revealing, showing that Mr Gachagua recognises the former President’s continuing relevance.

But Mr Kenyatta has not publicly endorsed Mr Gachagua’s political project and Jubilee has equally not surrendered Mt Kenya’s political space to him.

Mr Kenyatta’s supporters point to the former President’s continued ability to command attention among political leaders and his extensive networks across the country.

His endorsement of a candidate or coalition could therefore become significant in a tightly contested 2027 race.

This is where ex-Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i enters the equation.

The former CS, now Jubilee’s presidential candidate, has intensified efforts to rebuild the party’s national presence, including in Mt Kenya.

“We are intensifying our efforts in Mt Kenya and across the country. We are confident that we can win the support of Kenyans and lead the country,” Dr Matiang’i said.

For Mr Gachagua’s camp, the emergence of Dr Matiang’i represents a potential challenge because he could provide an alternative vehicle for voters opposed to Dr Ruto but unwilling to rally behind the former deputy president.

The contest has already produced sharp exchanges.

At a rally in Kiambu, Senator Karungo Thang’wa told Mr Gachagua that discussions about coalitions and the presidency should involve party leaders, specifically Mr Kenyatta.

“We have given direct orders to Riggy G himself that next time you talk about coalitions or the presidency, you should only talk to party leaders,” Mr Thang’wa said.

The struggle is not confined to Mt Kenya.

It has become part of a broader disagreement within the opposition over how the 2027 contest should be organised.

Should there be one dominant political centre around which other leaders rally, or should different parties and leaders retain their own bases while negotiating a common presidential ticket?

Mr Gachagua’s critics accuse him of favouring the former model.

Kitutu Chache South MP Anthony Kibagendi has described him as an obstacle to opposition unity, accusing him of preferring confrontation to consensus.

“Gachagua is currently the greatest impediment to the unity of the opposition. He is more interested in division than collaboration and more comfortable with confrontation than consensus-building,” Mr Kibagendi said.

Party of National Unity leader Peter Munya has similarly criticised Mr Gachagua’s approach, urging him to show greater respect towards other opposition leaders and parties.

People’s Liberation Party Chief Martha Karua has also resisted the idea that any individual or political party can claim ownership of a region.

Consequently, while Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro has recognized Mr Gachagua’s influence in Mt Kenya region, he continues to popularize his People’s Party of Kenya against Mr Gachagua’s DCP.

Analysts say that for Mr Gachagua, the challenge is not simply defeating Dr Ruto, but ensuring that when Ruto’s political influence in Mt Kenya recedes, the space left behind does not become another leader’s territory.

“That is the hidden battle now taking shape. Gachagua wants to become the region’s principal political voice. Uhuru wants to retain the political relevance built over decades, while Dr Matiang’i is seeking to turn Jubilee into a national vehicle and Karua and other opposition figures reject the idea of regional political ownership altogether,” says Mr Dismas Mokua.

Meanwhile, President Ruto is attempting to break the opposition coalition before it takes shape while keeping alive the memory of the alliance that delivered him Mt Kenya’s votes in 2022.

The political paradox is therefore clear; that Mr Gachagua and Mr Kenyatta may be on the same side against Dr Ruto, but they are not necessarily fighting the same battle.

“Their common enemy has created temporary political convergence. Their competing interests in the post-Ruto political order could eventually expose the fault lines,” Mr Mokua adds.

Follow our WhatsApp channel for breaking news updates and more stories like this.