By Godwin Oritse
International trade consultant and maritime expert, Okey IBEKE, has welcomed the reported increase in Nigeria’s exports to China under Beijing’s new zero-tariff policy but cautioned the Federal Government against judging the initiative by raw commodities export growth alone.
The Chinese Ambassador to Nigeria, Yu Dunhai, disclosed at an international seminar in Abuja that Chinese imports from Nigeria rose by about $2.3 billion in the first half of 2026, representing an 80 per cent increase.
Yu also said bilateral trade between Nigeria and China reached $18 billion during the period, representing a 35 per cent year-on-year increase.
According to him, the growth followed the implementation of China’s zero-tariff policy on May 1, covering 53 African countries with which Beijing maintains diplomatic relations.
The ambassador said the policy had reduced the cost of exporting Nigerian products including sesame, cattle bone granules and liquefied propane to China.
He cited savings of about $11,000 on every 100 tonnes of sesame exported, nearly $450,000 on Nigeria’s annual export of 7,000 tonnes of cattle bone granules and about $300,000 on a single 23,000-tonne shipment of liquefied propane.
IBEKE, who is the Publisher of Business and Maritime West Africa and Principal Consultant, International Trade Advisory Services Ltd, said the figures were encouraging but should be considered against the broader structure of Nigeria-China trade.
Available 2025 trade figures showed that Nigeria exported about N2.78 trillion worth of goods to China but imported approximately N19.79 trillion from the country, leaving a trade deficit of about N17 trillion.
He said the imbalance made it necessary to assess whether the new policy was merely increasing trade volumes or helping Nigeria build productive capacity.
“An increase in exports is welcome, but the real test is whether Nigeria is capturing more value, creating more jobs and strengthening its productive base,” IBEKE said.
IBEKE said China’s decision to eliminate tariffs on qualifying African products represents a significant market opportunity for Nigerian businesses, but access to a market does not automatically create competitiveness.
Nigerian exporters still face high energy and transport costs, expensive financing, foreign-exchange challenges, inadequate infrastructure, poor logistics, limited storage and processing facilities and difficulties meeting international certification requirements.
“Zero tariff at the destination is only one part of the equation. The exporter must first be able to produce competitively, consistently and at the required quality and scale,” he said.
He noted that the Chinese ambassador had similarly identified product quality, reliable supply chains and local processing as essential for African exporters to benefit from the policy.
IBEKE said Nigeria should therefore use the new market access to strengthen domestic production rather than simply increase shipments of raw commodities.
The trade consultant said Nigeria’s agricultural and natural-resource endowment could support substantially higher exports if more products were processed locally.
He identified sesame, cashew, cocoa, cassava, soybean, rubber and solid minerals among commodities with significant opportunities for value addition.
Exporting raw or minimally processed commodities, he said, leaves Nigeria with a relatively small share of the value generated from its resources.
“The objective should be to make China a major market for Nigerian value-added products, not merely a destination for Nigerian raw materials,” he said.
He called for stronger links between production centres, industrial parks, transport corridors, ports and export-processing zones to support domestic processing and export growth.
IBEKE also raised concerns about the competitive pressure Chinese imports could place on Nigerian manufacturers, particularly given the different production environments in both countries.
He said China had spent decades developing manufacturing clusters, infrastructure, logistics networks, technology capabilities and large-scale production systems, while Nigerian manufacturers continued to contend with high operating costs and infrastructure deficiencies.
That disparity, he said, could make it difficult for domestic producers to compete with cheaper imported products.
“This is not a call for Nigeria to shut its market to China. It is a call for a trading environment in which Nigerian businesses can compete fairly,” he said.
He cited Nigeria’s textile and footwear industries as a warning, noting that the sector’ s prolonged decline had been associated with several factors, including weak domestic competitiveness, smuggling and cheap imported textiles from China.
IBEKE warned that similar pressures could emerge in other sectors if import competition is not matched by measures to strengthen domestic production.
The trade consultant urged the government to strengthen its capacity to monitor imports and respond to unfair trade practices.
Where evidence establishes dumping, foreign subsidisation or serious injury to domestic industries, he said Nigeria should be prepared to deploy legitimate trade-remedy measures under applicable domestic and international rules.
He stressed that the objective should not be to shield inefficient industries indefinitely but to prevent unfair competition from destroying viable productive capacity.
He also called for improved trade data and early-warning mechanisms to identify sectors facing damaging import surges.
IBEKE said the issue was particularly important because Nigerian businesses were already operating under difficult economic conditions.
High energy and transport costs, expensive credit, foreign-exchange uncertainty and weakened consumer purchasing power continue to place pressure on manufacturers.
He therefore urged the Federal Government to link export promotion with a broader industrial competitiveness strategy covering electricity, industrial finance, infrastructure, port efficiency, standards and certification, storage, logistics and policy stability.
Despite his concerns, IBEKE said China’s zero-tariff policy should be regarded as an opportunity that Nigeria could exploit through deliberate industrial and trade policies.
He urged the government to identify products with strong demand in China and support the development of competitive Nigerian value chains around them.
He also called for greater participation by Nigerian businesses in Chinese trade fairs and business platforms and stronger support for exporters seeking to meet Chinese market standards.
According to him, the African Continental Free Trade Area could complement the initiative by enabling Nigeria to develop regional supply chains, source raw materials from other African countries, process them locally and export higher-value products to China.
“This is where the real opportunity lies. Nigeria should use market access to build production capacity, rather than simply increase the volume of commodity exports,” he said.
IBEKE said the Federal Government should establish clear benchmarks for assessing the impact of the zero-tariff arrangement.
These should include domestic value addition, jobs created, growth in processing industries, the number of Nigerian companies entering Chinese supply chains, technology transfer and changes in the composition of Nigeria’s trade with China.
He said such indicators would provide a better measure of whether the policy was contributing to structural transformation.
“China remains an important economic partner for Nigeria, and there is considerable scope for cooperation in manufacturing, agriculture, infrastructure, technology and investment,” he said.
“But Nigeria must approach the relationship from the standpoint of its own long-term economic interests.”
IBEKE said the reported $2.3 billion increase in exports should therefore be viewed as a positive opportunity rather than the final measure of success.
“China has opened its market. The responsibility now lies with Nigeria to build the capacity to compete in it,” he said.
He added that the ultimate objective should be to ensure that a greater share of the value generated from Nigeria’s resources is created and retained within the country
