In Nigeria today, the most important political meeting may not be taking place in Abuja, Lagos, or any party secretariat. It is taking place quietly in millions of Nigerian homes, where families sit down every evening to calculate what their income can still buy. That calculation may ultimately determine the outcome of the 2027 elections.
Nigeria is approaching another crucial election. Political parties are mobilising, alliances are being negotiated, and politicians are travelling across the country seeking votes. But beneath the excitement of another political season lies a painful reality: for millions of Nigerians, survival has become a daily struggle. The question Nigerians should therefore be asking is simple: after more than three years of the APC administration under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, are we better off? The government can point to economic reforms, improved GDP growth, and declining headline inflation. Indeed, the economy grew by 4.43 per cent in the second quarter of 2026, while headline inflation fell to 15.43 per cent in July. These are figures the government is entitled to celebrate.
But government statistics cannot be allowed to become a substitute for the lived experience of citizens. For the Nigerian family at the market, the most important statistic is not GDP. It is the price of rice, garri, beans, meat, tomatoes, and bread. And here lies the uncomfortable contradiction: while headline inflation has moderated, food inflation rose to 20.31 per cent year-on-year in July, with monthly food inflation accelerating sharply to 5.56 per cent. So when the government says inflation is falling, many Nigerians understandably ask: falling for whom?
The APC administration inherited serious economic problems. That must be acknowledged. Nigeria did not become economically troubled in 2023. But after more than three years in office, an administration cannot continue indefinitely blaming its predecessors for every hardship. Leadership means taking responsibility.
The removal of the fuel subsidy and the major adjustment of the exchange rate were presented as necessary reforms that would eventually produce a stronger economy. There may be economic arguments for those decisions. But reforms must ultimately be judged by their consequences for the people. If reform produces higher government revenues but leaves millions of citizens unable to afford food, transport, housing, and healthcare, the government must explain how and when the promised benefits will reach ordinary Nigerians. A government cannot ask citizens to eat GDP growth. Nor can they pay school fees with foreign reserves.
The most disturbing issue, however, may be security. Nigeria remains confronted by kidnapping, terrorism, banditry, and communal violence. Recent reporting has described thousands of abductions and more than a thousand deaths over a twelve-month period. In August alone, about 500 security incidents were recorded nationwide, with northern Nigeria accounting for the majority.
This is not simply a security statistic. It is a farmer who cannot reach his farm. It is a parent afraid to send a child to school. It is a businessman who cannot travel safely. It is a family that goes to bed wondering whether a loved one will return home.
The primary responsibility of government is the protection of lives and property. When citizens increasingly feel unsafe, the government must accept that something is fundamentally wrong. The APC administration deserves credit for some efforts made by the security agencies, but Nigerians are entitled to ask whether those efforts are producing sufficient results.
Government cannot defeat insecurity merely by announcing military operations after every attack. Intelligence, policing, technology, local cooperation, economic opportunity, and effective prosecution must form part of a broader strategy. The crisis is also economic. Nigeria is a country rich in oil, gas, agriculture, human capital, and enormous entrepreneurial talent. Yet millions remain trapped in poverty while young graduates struggle to find meaningful employment. This is where the political debate should be heading.
Unfortunately, Nigerian politics often becomes a contest of personalities, ethnic calculations, religious sentiments, political patronage, and campaign spending. 2027 must be different. The APC should not be judged merely by its campaign promises. It should be judged by its record. The opposition should also not be allowed to escape scrutiny. Nigerians must demand the same standard from everybody seeking their votes. Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, Rabiu Kwankwaso, and every other presidential aspirant must answer the same fundamental questions: How will you secure Nigeria? How will you create jobs? How will you reduce the cost of living? How will you industrialise the country? How will you fix electricity? How will you improve healthcare and education? Nigerians should demand numbers, timelines, and realistic funding plans—not political poetry.
The electorate must also reject the dangerous politics of ethnic and religious mobilisation. A hungry Nigerian is hungry regardless of tribe. A kidnapped Nigerian is a victim regardless of religion. An unemployed graduate does not become employed because a politician shares his ethnic background. And a poor family does not become prosperous because its preferred candidate belongs to its political party.
The Nigerian voter must therefore become more sophisticated. A bag of rice given during an election campaign may provide food for a few days. A government that creates jobs and builds industries can provide dignity for generations. That is the difference between political patronage and responsible leadership.
The 2027 election will also be fought on a new battlefield: the digital space. INEC has already warned about the danger of artificial intelligence-driven disinformation, including manipulated videos, audio, and other forms of political deception. Nigerians must be careful. Political propaganda will intensify. False stories will circulate. Candidates will be demonised, and others presented as political messiahs.
The responsibility of the voter is enormous. 2027 should not be an election in which Nigerians simply ask, “Who is our party supporting?” It should be an election in which they ask, “Who can actually fix Nigeria?”
The APC administration should understand that the 2027 election will be a referendum—not merely on slogans, but on the lived experience of Nigerians under its watch. The government may argue that reforms take time. That is fair. But Nigerians also have the right to ask: How much more time can the poor afford? How long should families continue struggling with food prices? How long should businesses battle crippling operating costs? How long should parents worry about insecurity? How long should young Nigerians search endlessly for opportunities in a country with enormous resources?
These questions cannot be dismissed as opposition propaganda. They are the questions of ordinary citizens. Ultimately, 2027 will test both politicians and voters. Politicians must decide whether they want power merely for its privileges or whether they genuinely want to transform Nigeria. Voters must decide whether their ballot is worth more than the money handed to them at election time.
For too long, Nigerian politics has been about politicians calculating how to win elections. Perhaps it is time for Nigerians to calculate what they stand to gain or lose from the politicians they elect.
The choice before the Nigerian voter in 2027 is therefore bigger than APC, PDP, ADC, NDC, the Labour Party, or any other political platform. It is a choice between continuing with a political culture that has repeatedly disappointed the people and demanding something better. It is a choice between politics as usual and the politics of survival, competence, and accountability. And when Nigerians finally stand before the ballot box in 2027, they should remember one thing: a vote is not an expression of gratitude. It is a contract with the future. This time, Nigerians must decide whether they are voting merely for politics—or voting for their survival.
*Dr Ofoye writes from Lagos.
