South Africa could face its hottest year on record in 2027 amid an intensifying strong El Nino event, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) has said.
In a statement, SAWS said a strong El Nino had formed in the Pacific Ocean and was likely to intensify during the Southern Hemisphere spring.
“The latest predictions are indicative that the El Nino will likely intensify further to become the strongest event in living memory,” it said.
The latest weekly averaged sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern central tropical Pacific Ocean have already exceeded the threshold for a very strong El Nino, SAWS said.
A strong El Nino is defined as sea surface temperatures more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above normal, while a very strong event exceeds 2 degrees.
According to SAWS, current forecasts indicate that the anomaly could surpass 3 degrees Celsius, Xinhua news agency reported. “
Most El Nino events bring conditions of below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures to the southern African region,” SAWS said, while noting that not every El Nino event results in drought.
The weather service’s October to December 2026 forecast indicates below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures over most of South Africa, with similar conditions expected from November 2026 to January 2027.
“It should be noted that the expected very strong El Nino of 2026/27, in combination with global warming, will likely result in 2027 being the warmest year ever recorded,” it said.
SAWS said the 2015/16 El Nino brought unprecedented heatwaves to southern Africa and warned that, if the expected below-normal rainfall occurs, a high frequency of potentially severe heatwaves could accompany the current event.
The agency said uncertainty remained over the eventual strength and regional impacts of the El Nino and that it would closely monitor risks including heatwaves and water scarcity.
IANS
