The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) has warned of below-average rainfall this September, raising fresh worries for farmers in several key agricultural counties across the country.
From a document obtained by Kenyans.co.ke on the September weather outlook, the counties placed under watch are Trans Nzoia, Bungoma, Busia, Kakamega, Siaya, Vihiga, Nandi and Uasin-Gishu, all expected to receive below-average rainfall this month.
Other affected regions include Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot, Kisumu, Kericho, Nyamira, Kisii, Bomet, Migori, Homa Bay, and parts of Narok, Nakuru, and Baringo Counties.
Likewise, while a dry spell may work in favour of harvesting, the Met Department has further cautioned that food, water, and pasture shortages could follow, especially after crop losses were recorded in the previous months.
A photo of rain on a farm.
Photo
Meridiano
“The below-average rainfall expected over Trans Nzoia, Bungoma, Busia, Kakamega, Siaya, Vihiga, Nandi, Uasin-Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot, Kisumu, Kericho, Nyamira, Kisii, Bomet, Migori, Homa Bay and parts of Narok, Nakuru and Baringo Counties may be conducive for harvesting,” Kenya Met stated.
Counties like Laikipia, Makueni, Kitui, Machakos, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Garissa, Isiolo, Taita Taveta and Kajiado are also expected to experience sunny and dry conditions.
Beyond faring, the forecast has also flagged grave implications for water resources and the energy sector, with the Mt. Kenya catchment area projected to experience mainly dry conditions, a development that could affect water levels in hydro-electric dams like Masinga Dam, and further have compounding impacts on zones that fully depend on irrigation.
“The water catchment areas in Mt Elgon and the Mau Escarpment are expected to receive below-average rainfall, while those over Mt Kenya are expected to experience mainly dry weather conditions. This may adversely affect water levels in hydroelectric dams,” Kenya Met added.
On the general weather outlook for September, KMSA noted that water availability in Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Marsabit, Garissa, Turkana, and Samburu counties is likely to decline due to the expected dry weather.
The situation is expected to be compounded by below-average rainfall in the Mt Elgon and Mau Escarpment water catchment areas, key sources for the country’s rivers, thus further impacting the country’s breadbasket.
This alarm comes at a time when the country is experiencing severe shortages of major food items such as maize, which prompted the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock to order the importation of 25 million bags of maize.
On the other hand, the country is also facing a temporary milk shortage due to dry, cold weather that has reduced pasture and fodder availability for dairy cows, as the Kenya Dairy Board (KDB) confirmed that formal milk deliveries to processors declined by 3.7 per cent, falling from 84.4 million litres in June to 81.3 million litres in July 2026.
Photo collage of a farmer sieving milk and an individual ready to drink milk in a cup.
Photo
SNV
