Tuesday 01st September, 2026 11:30 PM|
Kenya’s milk shortage is being driven mainly by dry and cold conditions that have reduced pasture and fodder availability in key dairy-producing areas, cutting the volume of milk delivered to processors.
The Kenya Dairy Board (KDB) said formal milk deliveries fell by 3.7 per cent, from 84.4 million litres in June 2026 to 81.3 million litres in July. Preliminary indications point to a further decline in August.
“Milk continues to be available in the market, despite temporary supply constraints being experienced in some parts of the country,” KDB Managing Director William Maritim said.
The decline highlights the exposure of Kenya’s dairy industry to seasonal weather conditions, which can affect feed availability, milk yields and the volume collected by processors.
Why milk supply falls
KDB said recent market surveillance had identified varying levels of supply constraints, including low stocks, reduced availability of some brands and pack sizes, and delayed replenishment at some retail outlets.
Pasteurised milk has been more affected by the disruption, while long-life products such as extended shelf-life (ESL) and ultra-high temperature (UHT) milk remain comparatively available.
The difference reflects the way milk is processed and distributed. Fresh pasteurised milk depends more directly on regular collection from farms and rapid movement through the supply chain, while UHT and ESL products can be stored for longer periods.
KDB attributed the current constraints largely to dry and cold conditions in key milk-producing areas.
For dairy farmers, reduced pasture and fodder availability can put pressure on milk production, particularly where farms have limited capacity to store feed for dry periods.
The International Livestock Research Institute has identified improved silage and forage preservation as potential ways for smallholder dairy farmers to maintain feed availability during periods when fresh pasture is limited.
What happens to prices
The supply squeeze has so far had a limited effect on prices nationally.
KDB said retail milk prices had generally remained stable, although some areas experiencing supply constraints had recorded upward price movements.
The impact is likely to vary by location and product because shortages have not affected all markets equally. Areas facing lower supplies and delayed replenishment are more exposed to price increases than markets where retailers continue to receive adequate deliveries.
The October-November-December 2026 rainfall season could provide some relief. KDB expects improved rainfall to boost pasture and fodder availability, supporting a recovery in milk production and supply.
“The outlook for the October–November–December 2026 rainfall season is expected to support recovery in pasture and fodder availability, leading to improved milk production and supply as conditions become more favourable,” Maritim said.
Can Kenya fix supply?
The longer-term challenge is reducing the dairy sector’s exposure to seasonal production swings.
The government is implementing measures intended to increase milk production and strengthen the resilience of the dairy value chain. These include procuring and distributing milk coolers to improve milk aggregation and preservation, alongside support for dairy herd improvement through subsidised sexed semen.
Milk coolers can help reduce losses between farms and processors by improving handling and preservation, while herd improvement is intended to raise the productivity of Kenya’s dairy animals over time.
KDB said the interventions would contribute to higher production and more stable milk supplies.
The Board is also continuing to monitor milk production, formal deliveries, market availability and retail prices while working with industry stakeholders to maintain continuity of supply.
For consumers, the immediate question is whether the expected rains will restore supplies and prevent further price pressure. For farmers and processors, the bigger test is whether investment in feed, cooling infrastructure and herd productivity can make milk production more consistent throughout the year.
“Consumers and stakeholders are therefore reassured that the current situation is temporary,” KDB said.
