By Dr. Abiola Salami
In Issue 001 of the Performance Leadership Brief™ — The National Performance Edition, I asked: Nigeria has paid the price of reform. Where is the performance?
A well respected senior business leader who read the Brief subsequently challenged me to take the argument further. His proposition was that Nigeria needs growth substantially above current levels (i.e. potentially more than 8% annually, sustained over a decade) if we are serious about employment creation, poverty reduction and building a significantly larger middle class.
Although 8%may not be an economic magic number, the underlying argument is compelling. Nigeria needs to grow much faster, for much longer and much more inclusively.
The IMF projects growth of about 4.1% in 2026. Yet its 2026 assessment also estimates poverty at 63% using the national poverty line and reports that 27 million Nigerians faced food insecurity in late 2025. The World Bank estimates that about 3.5 million Nigerians enter the labour force annually.
So the question is no longer simply whether Nigeria is growing.Is Nigeria growing fast enough, productively enough and inclusively enough to transform Nigerian lives?
That demands a different growth strategy and here are my 9 recommendations:
1. Move From Stabilisation to Production
The first phase of reform understandably focused on correcting major macroeconomic distortions.Fuel subsidy reform, exchange-rate reform and tighter monetary policy imposed significant adjustment costs on households and businesses, even as they addressed longstanding structural problems.
However, countries do not become prosperous by stabilising indefinitely. They become prosperous by producing.The next phase must therefore seek to answer the following 4 questions (a) What can Nigeria produce competitively? (b) What can we process instead of exporting raw? (c) Which industries can employ people at scale? (d) Where can Nigerian businesses compete regionally and globally?
Nigeria cannot sustainably consume its way to transformational growth.It must produce, invest, innovate and export its way there.
2. Make the Private Sector the Growth Engine
With millions entering the labour force annually, Nigeria’s employment challenge cannot principally be solved by expanding government payrolls.The scale demands an economy where businesses are created, existing businesses scale and private capital continually enters productive activity.That modifies electricity, affordable finance, logistics, infrastructure, security and regulatory predictability from merely business complaints to growth issues.
Every unnecessary constraint that makes a productive Nigerian enterprise more expensive to operate ultimately constrains national growth.Government creates the enabling environment. But productive enterprises must ultimately create much of the investment, innovation and employment required for transformation.
3. Don’t Forget the Businesses That Paid for Reform
Citizens were not the only ones who absorbed the reform shock.Businesses did too; particularly micro and small enterprises.
Following subsidy removal, higher fuel costs travelled through transportation, distribution, power generation and operating expenses. For a large corporation, an energy shock may become another cost-optimisation challenge. For the barber running a generator, tailor, food vendor, welder, small retailer or neighbourhood manufacturer, it can threaten the economics of the entire business.
If Nigeria wants transformational growth, microenterprise cannot be treated merely as a poverty-alleviation conversation.It is part of the growth architecture.
The question should therefore be What are we doing to make the millions of small businesses that survived the reform shock more productive than they were before it?Finance matters. So do electricity, markets, digital infrastructure, transportation, skills and access to customers.
4. Follow the Reform Money
Perhaps one of the least interrogated questions in the reform debate is simple – Where is the money going?The fiscal consequences of reform extend beyond the Federal Government.
NBS data show how significantly aggregate Federation Account flows changed around the reform period. In April 2023, before subsidy removal, states collectively received N232.13 billion and local governments N171.26 billion from that month’s FAAC disbursement. By July 2024, the corresponding amounts were N461.98 billion and N337.02 billion respectively.
The question at every level of government should become. You are receiving more. What are Nigerians getting more of? Is it better primary healthcare, better schools, better roads, better security, better agricultural infrastructure, better water, better markets or better local enterprise support?
The performance equation should be:
ADDITIONAL REVENUE → PRODUCTIVE INVESTMENT → MEASURABLE OUTCOMES.
Citizens should increasingly be able to trace one to the other.
About Dr. Abiola Salami
Dr. Abiola Salami is the Principal Performance Strategist at CHAMP – a full scale professional services firm trusted by high performing business leaders for providing Executive Coaching, Workforce Development & Advisory Services to improve performance.He is the Convener of Dr Abiola Salami International Leadership Bootcamp ; The Peak PerformerTM FestivalMade4More Accelerator Program and The New Year Kickoff Summit. You can reach his team on [email protected] and connect with him @abiolachamp on all social media platforms.
