Listed utility company, Kenya Power, is warning that the rapid growth of wind and solar generation is imposing additional costs and technical pressures on the national electricity grid, forcing it to rely more heavily on other generators to keep electricity supply stable.
- •Kenya Power said variable renewable energy, principally wind and solar, now accounts for more than 20% of the grid’s firm-capacity measure, above a 15% level it described as a global benchmark.
- •During the daytime peak, when electricity demand is about 1,900 megawatts, variable renewables account for 34% of the energy mix, rising to 36% when demand falls to about 1,200 MW.
- •Kenya Power is calling for greater investment in geothermal and hydropower alongside any further expansion of wind and solar, and battery storage for managing fluctuations.
The output of solar and wind energy rises or falls with changes in sunlight and wind conditions. When production drops suddenly, Kenya Power must bring other generating units into operation to replace the lost electricity and maintain the frequency and voltage needed to keep the grid functioning. Those costs can ultimately feed into the price of electricity, particularly where the utility is contractually obligated to pay generators under power-purchase arrangements.
“Our current system under the take or pay model of power purchase has led to an increase in VREs to over 20% against a recommended average of 15%. Given the intermittent nature of wind and solar, we have no option but to dispatch and pay for generators, increasing the overall cost of power,” said Kenya Power MD, Joseph Siror.
Kenya Power also said the country’s variable-renewable share is already the highest in the Eastern Africa Power Pool. It puts Egypt’s comparable share at 10.4%, Ethiopia’s at 5.3%, Uganda’s at 4%, and Tanzania’s at 1.2%.
About 78.8% of electricity generation in Kenya comes from renewables, according to the figures from the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA). Geothermal accounts for 40.1%, hydropower 22.4% and wind 13%. The remainder of the renewable share is largely solar.
Stabilising the Grid as Demand Grows
Kenya Power is calling for greater investment in geothermal and hydropower alongside any further expansion of wind and solar. It also points to battery storage as a potential tool for managing fluctuations, although storage would add another layer of investment to a power system already facing pressure to contain generation costs.
Geothermal power is important for the country because, unlike wind and solar, it can provide relatively steady output regardless of weather conditions. Hydro can also provide dispatchable generation, although its availability is affected by diminished water levels in a country prone to unpredictable dry seasons.
The utility firm identified projects such as the 61 MW from KenGen’s Olkaria I Unit 6, 80 MW from Olkaria 7, 35 MW from Globeleq’s Menengai project, 35 MW from OrPower’s Menengai project, 200 MW of electricity imports from Ethiopia, 100 MW from Paka Silali, and 28 MW from Nabuyole, as viable baseload sources of power to stabilize the grid.
Kenya Power also expects a 1.5-metre increase in the level of the Masinga Dam to raise annual generation by 83 gigawatt-hours. Larger projects are also in the pipeline, including an LNG-fired plant initially proposed at 300 MW, the 700 MW High Grand Falls project, and the 90 MW Karura Falls project.
The push for more firm generation comes as Kenya’s electricity demand is expected to grow with industrialization, urbanization, and wider access to electricity. The Ministry of Energy currently puts peak demand at about 2,439 MW, making the ability to maintain supply during sudden changes in renewable output increasingly important as the system grows.
Kenya is also targeting the commissioning of its first commercial nuclear plant by 2034. The proposed project, being advanced by the Nuclear Power and Energy Agency (NuPEA), is expected to have a capacity of between 1,000 MW and 2,000 MW, NuPEA describes nuclear power as a firm, base-load source that can operate independently of weather conditions.
A nuclear plant of that scale would be substantially larger than most individual projects now being added to Kenya’s grid and could provide a significant block of dependable electricity. However, it would also represent one of the country’s largest infrastructure investments and require financing, regulatory preparation, grid upgrades, and substantial construction time.
