Kofi Annan Foundation Flags Kenya Among Countries at Risk of Election Violence Ahead of 2027 Poll

Kenya is at risk of election-related violence ahead of the 2027 general elections, a report from the Kofi Annan Foundation has revealed.

According to the June report, Kenya has performed better than the regional average for Sub-Saharan Africa on key electoral indicators. Despite this performance, the country still has an electoral-related violence risk of over 84.1 per cent.

The Electoral Vulnerability Index (EVI) 2026–2027, released in June 2026, assigns Kenya an EVI Risk Index of 45.4, below the regional baseline of 51.1.

“Kenya’s EVI Risk Index of 45.4 is modestly below the country-excluded Sub-Saharan African Risk Index baseline, but the country remains electorally sensitive,” the report read in part.

According to the report,  the assessment focuses on the likelihood of election-related violence, including localised clashes, protests, or unrest, rather than predicting widespread nationwide conflict.

The foundation says Kenya’s electoral environment remains sensitive due to a combination of historical and contemporary factors, including competitive presidential contests, ethnic political mobilisation, youth unemployment, land grievances and lingering mistrust in electoral administration.

It also links recent economic hardship, tax protests, opposition mobilisation, debates over the high cost of living, corruption concerns and allegations of police misconduct to a political climate that could heighten tensions ahead of the polls.

The foundation notes that youth-led protests and civic activism in recent years have demonstrated that public grievances can mobilise beyond traditional political party structures, potentially influencing the 2027 election.

“Economic hardship, tax protests, opposition mobilisation, debates over the cost of living, and public anger over corruption and police conduct have marked the political environment since 2022. Youth-led protests and civic activism have shown that grievances can mobilise beyond traditional party structures. The 2027 cycle may therefore combine conventional presidential competition with broader accountability demands,” it added.

Further, the report identifies the composition, credibility and operational readiness of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) as central to reducing electoral risks. It argues that public confidence in the commission will be critical to ensuring a peaceful electoral process.

Among the potential drivers of conflict identified by the report were trust in the IEBC and technology; ethnic and local patronage competition; economic grievances and youth mobilisation; and police conduct and protest management.

Despite the risks, the foundation acknowledges that Kenya has relatively strong institutions, an active civil society and a more institutionalised electoral framework than many countries in the region, factors it says could help mitigate the likelihood of major electoral violence if effectively leveraged.

The warning comes almost a year to the general election, as President Ruto seeks a second term in office, with the opposition also positioning itself to field a single candidate to face Ruto in 2027.

However, as campaigns intensify, political rallies have increasingly been disrupted by violence, with rival camps accusing each other of hiring goons to interfere with opponents’ meetings.