A Fragile Harvest: How Fertilizer Shortages and Rising Costs Endanger Kenya’s Food Basket
In the sun-drenched highlands of Trans-Nzoia County, where golden maize stalks sway under the Kenyan sun, smallholder farmers like Philip Kitur stand at the precipice of a looming agricultural crisis. At 71 years old, Kitur tends to his 41-acre farm in Kipkeikei village, a region renowned as one of Kenya’s most productive maize-growing zones. Yet, beneath his weathered smile lies a growing fear: without access to fertilizer, his harvest could shrink by up to 30%, jeopardizing his family’s food security and livelihood.
Kitur’s dilemma is not isolated. Across Kenya, geopolitical tensions in the Gulf, soaring fuel prices, and global fertilizer shortages have created a perfect storm, threatening the nation’s ability to feed its population. With 7.5 million smallholder farmers—many of whom rely on maize as their primary staple—depending on the land’s productivity, the consequences of this crisis extend far beyond individual farms.
The Fertilizer Crisis: A Domino Effect on Kenya’s Food Production
Kenya’s National Fertilizer Subsidy Program (NFSP) has long been a cornerstone of agricultural support, providing farmers with subsidized inputs to boost yields. However, the program’s effectiveness is now being tested by unprecedented global disruptions.
Supply Chain Disruptions and Rising Costs
In March 2026, farmers in Trans-Nzoia endured long queues at government depots in Kitale, struggling to secure subsidized fertilizer. Yet, even with government-backed subsidies, the commercial market has seen dramatic price surges. In January 2026, a 50kg bag of Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) or urea cost KSh46 ($0.36). By March, the same bag had skyrocketed to KSh8,000 ($62)—a 17-fold increase—due to the Gulf War and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for global fertilizer trade.
Josephine Ndonji, a tomato farmer in Kisumu, faced the brunt of these fluctuations. After ordering 25 bags of fertilizer, she discovered shortages and had to split purchases between suppliers, incurring additional transport costs of KSh2,000 ($15) per bag to reach her farm in Ahero. “The price of diesel has eaten into all the savings from the subsidized fertilizer,” she told local agricultural officials. “Now, even if I get the inputs, the cost of transporting them makes farming nearly unprofitable.”
Government Response: Subsidies Under Strain
The Kenyan government has attempted to mitigate the crisis through subsidized fertilizer allocations. In the 2025/2026 financial year, the government allocated $61 million—a significant reduction from the $139 million spent in the previous year. Despite this, President William Ruto had pledged in his 2025 State of the Nation address to distribute 12.5 million bags (625,000 tonnes) of fertilizer in 2026, up from 7 million bags (350,000 tonnes) in 2025.
However, the Gulf War has forced Kenya to pivot its sourcing strategy. Historically, Morocco, Russia, and Saudi Arabia were key suppliers under the NFSP. Now, with Saudi Arabia and Qatar—major exporters of nitrogenous fertilizers—potentially affected by the conflict, Kenya is scouring new markets, including Algeria and Egypt, to secure supplies. Yet, diversifying suppliers may not be enough if global shipping costs continue to rise.
The Maize Shortfall: A Nation at Risk
Maize is Kenya’s staple food, accounting for over 60% of the national diet. In 2024, Trans-Nzoia alone contributed 423,156 tonnes (10.5%) of Kenya’s 4.028 million tonnes of maize production. But soil degradation, fertilizer shortages, and rising input costs are eroding this productivity.
A 2025 Soil Atlas report, published by the Heinrich Böll Foundation, reveals a bleak picture:
– Only 20% of Kenya’s land is arable, with most agricultural land located in dryland regions prone to drought.
– 40% of Kenya’s land is degraded, losing up to 26 tonnes of soil per hectare annually due to erosion.
– 63% of arable land has acidic soils, worsened by overuse of synthetic fertilizers, which has led to nutrient depletion and reduced crop yields.
Despite these challenges, 2.1 million hectares of maize are still cultivated annually, supported by heavy reliance on chemical inputs. Without intervention, soil health will continue to decline, further threatening food security.
The Fuel Crisis: Another Blow to Farmers
The Gulf War’s impact extends beyond fertilizer shortages—it has also driven up diesel prices, adding another layer of financial strain for farmers.
In 2026, diesel prices in Kenya spiked dramatically:
– February 2026: KSh165.63 ($1.28) per liter
– April 2026: KSh206.84 ($1.60) per liter
– Mid-May 2026: A record high of KSh242.92 ($1.88) per liter in Nairobi
After public protests and stakeholder interventions, the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) temporarily reduced the price to KSh222.86 ($1.74). However, the underlying volatility remains, forcing farmers like Kitur to allocate more of their budgets to fuel rather than inputs.
“Before, the subsidized fertilizer was the biggest expense,” Kitur explained. “Now, the diesel to run my tractors costs as much as the fertilizer itself. It’s like running on empty—we’re spending more to grow less.”
The Maize Price Floor: A Double-Edged Sword
To protect farmers from market fluctuations, the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) introduced a minimum price floor for maize in 2026. The new policy set a KSh4,000 ($30.89) per 90kg bag—up from the previous KSh3,500 ($27.03).
While intended to stabilize incomes, the policy has faced widespread criticism. Many farmers argue that private millers—who purchase maize at KSh4,200 ($32.43) to KSh4,400 ($33.98) per bag—are undermining government efforts by offering better rates. Additionally, smallholders with limited storage capacity struggle to hold onto grain until prices rise, risking post-harvest losses.
A Path Forward: Can Kenya Achieve Food Sovereignty?
Kenya’s food security is now at a crossroads. While the government has pivoted to new fertilizer suppliers and increased subsidies, the nation remains vulnerable to global shocks. The Gulf War, rising fuel costs, and soil degradation create a perfect storm that threatens to reduce maize yields, inflate food prices, and deepen rural poverty.
Experts warn that short-term solutions—such as diversifying fertilizer imports—are not enough. For long-term resilience, Kenya must:
1. Invest in soil regeneration through organic farming, agroforestry, and precision agriculture to reduce reliance on synthetic fertilizers.
2. Expand irrigation infrastructure to combat drought and improve water efficiency.
3. Strengthen rural infrastructure, including better roads and storage facilities, to reduce post-harvest losses.
4. Promote climate-smart farming techniques to enhance drought resistance and improve yields in degraded soils.
Without these measures, Kenya’s food security will continue to hinge on global markets, leaving farmers like Philip Kitur at the mercy of distant conflicts and volatile commodity prices.
For now, the nation’s food basket remains fragile, and the fear of running on empty is very real.
