Nigeria’s Q1 economy shows resilience amid insecurity
Nigeria’s economy has recorded a steady but cautious performance in the first quarter of the year, with experts highlighting resilience despite persistent structural challenges, including insecurity, uneven sectoral growth, and pressure on consumers. Leading economists noted that while macroeconomic stability appears to be improving, underlying risks could shape investment flows and long-term growth.
This was at the European Business Chamber (Eurocham) Nigeria CEO session held yesterday in Lagos themed “Navigating the Q1 Economy and Financing Industrial Growth”.
According to Chief Economist at PwC Nigeria, Olusegun Zaccheaus the economy progressed decently well in the first quarter despite external and domestic shocks. He explained that the monetary environment is expected to remain stable, while fiscal conditions continue to evolve without any major anticipated downturn. However, he emphasized that consumers remain under pressure, and growth across sectors has been uneven, with oil and gas outperforming sectors such as manufacturing.
Zaccheaus identified insecurity as a major recurring challenge, warning that it continues to damage Nigeria’s global image and elevate sovereign risk, potentially discouraging foreign investment. He also stressed the urgent need to unlock productivity across the economy, particularly through reforms in the power sector. While acknowledging government efforts in addressing structural bottlenecks, he noted that sustained intervention is necessary to drive meaningful improvements.
He projected a stronger economic performance in 2026 compared to 2025, urging the government to maintain policy consistency, strengthen security, and create a more investment-friendly environment. He highlighted renewed activity in the oil and gas sector due to returning investments after years of stagnation, while also pointing to continued growth in telecommunications and technology as bright spots in the economy.
Chief Economist, First Bank Group, Chinwe Egwim, described the macroeconomic environment as stabilising, though influenced by global economic dynamics. She explained that fluctuations in global oil prices have created a dual effect, boosting government revenues while placing strain on businesses and households at the microeconomic level.
Egwim noted that while the overall outlook remains positive, there are noticeable financial pressures on businesses and consumers. From a credit perspective, she stated that liquidity in the financial system has improved since the third quarter of the previous year, supporting increased access to funding. However, she cautioned that many small and medium-sized enterprises still face challenges related to documentation, structuring, and meeting lending requirements.
She added that credit availability is generally improving across core sectors, reflecting broader banking industry trends rather than isolated institutional efforts, emphasising the importance of proper financial structuring and repayment capacity for businesses seeking financing.
General Manager, Eurocham Nigeria, Chigozie Okwara, described the event as critical, especially in light of new reforms spanning taxation, policy, and economic planning.
Okwa said that initiatives are underway to enhance collaboration, attract investment, and transfer European technological expertise to Nigerian businesses. He noted that such partnerships aim to raise operational standards and competitiveness, with Nigerian participation already strong across joint ventures.
He added that future efforts will focus on expanding business matchmaking opportunities and strengthening cross-border cooperation.
Director, Head of Nigeria, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), Hamza Al-Assad explained that Nigeria became a member and country of operation in 2025, with the bank establishing a local presence to support investment and development.
Al-Assad stated that the institution evaluates a wide range of factors before financing projects, including financial viability, governance standards, regulatory conditions, and risk allocation. He emphasised the bank’s role not only in funding but also in helping businesses become more “bankable” by improving project structures and aligning with international standards.
He added that Nigeria’s inclusion in the bank’s expansion into sub-Saharan Africa reflects both its economic potential and growing interest from international stakeholders. The EBRD is targeting key sectors and aims to work closely with local partners to drive sustainable investment.
