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“Wisdom in people consists of the anticipation of consequences.”
Norman Cousins,1915-1990, Vanguard Book Of Quotations, VBQ p 274
“The road to hell is paved with good intentions.”
Until a few days ago, it would never have crossed my that I could be defending the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, NNPCL, established to foster economic growth and development, but, which has become a drain on our resources. Every government, since the inception of the NNPC, in 1973, had handed the organization to a favoured few for personal fabulous self-enrichment.
It is possible that if a truthful probe of the enterprise is conducted if any director would go home un-indicted.
I knew NNPC long before starting to write for Vanguard 39 years ago. Since then, over 4000 columns have been written; nearly 70 on NNPC(L).
None of them was complimentary. They were not meant to be. Four out of those published in recent years were: NNPC Refineries as a Metaphor For all that is wrong with Nigeria, NNPCL might be in bigger trouble after kyari, NNPCL scandal long foretold and NNPCL’S Crude Oil Processing Capacity.
If asked to summarise my view of the organization it would be: NNPCL is a Nigerian public organization established for the common good which Presidents have allowed to be privatised by its Directors and Managers, appointed to primarily serve the interests of those very close to the corridors of power.
It is a racket; not a company in the honest company serves the interests of its shareholders.
NNPCL does not even pretend to serve the interest of Nigerians.
When President Tinubu, shortly after announcing termination of fuel subsidy, hastily approved the release of $2.3 billion for the rehabilitation of the refineries in 2023, he was told right here that the $2.3 billion was destined to be wasted and looted. What is the situation today?
EXECUTIVE ORDER 9 AND ITS ORIGINS
“Presidential Executive Order to Safeguard Federation Oil and Gas Reserves and Provide Regulatory Clarity, 2026.”
That was the title of Executive Order 9; which might not have been necessary if the framers of the Petroleum Industry Act, PIA, 2021, and the National Assembly, had been diligent enough and had prioritised the national interest instead of personal gain.
The mischief started during Yar’Adua’s administration, when in 2009, a draft PIA was presented to the President of Nigeria by late Dr Rilwan Lukman, Minister of Petroleum Resources.
It was 896 pages long plus twelve pages of addendum. A small group of patriotic Northerners obtained a copy and quickly made a dozen copies.
I was privileged to be called and given the assignment of reading the draft and producing an Executive Summary, not more than three pages, to be ready in ten days – for a private meeting with the President.
I was lodged in an exclusive hotel in Abuja for the period. The document, which I later discovered, was prepared largely by the International Oil Companies, IOCs, was certainly against the national interest; as my summary made clear.
Yar’Adua was about to return it to Lukman for major amendments when terminal illness took him away.
Jonathan took over and, for some reason unclear to me, was persuaded to send the PIA drafted, based largely on the rejected proposal.
In fact, during his State visit to Turkey in 2011, the Nigerian President announced that he would “have a PIA signed by May” that year. I wrote a reply in the Sunday Vanguard telling GOJ that “there will be no PIA to sign before May”.
How did I know there would be no PIA to sign in 2011? Simple.
The small band of patriotic Northerners had worked quietly to get the proposed Act bottled up in three committees of the Senate and House of Representatives – right until May 29, 2011.
Jonathan was forced to withdraw it for amendments; which, unfortunately, gave too much power to the President and the Minister of Petroleum Resources – Diezani Alison-Madueke.
We were back in the trenches to ensure that Jonathan had no PIA to sign without again amending the sections deemed not to be in the national interest.
We were not against the PIA. I had long been an advocate for the commercialization and total privatization of the oil and gas sector.
But, the PIA must protect common interest and not turn NNPCL into an ATM machine for a few at the expense of the vast majority.
Certainly, it should not favour IOCs more than Nigerians. Jonathan missed the chance to enact an equitable PIA; and handed the opportunity to Buhari – who lacked the capacity to understand the intricacies of the complex oil sector.
He was also not aware of his own limitations. Otherwise, he should have appointed a competent Minister to guide the process of enacting a PIA that would stand the test of time.
Given the impure motives of the framers of the Act, questionable clauses are inevitable. Section64 is not the only one which breaches the constitution.
But, it is probably the one which has prompted Executive Order 9; which would have been regarded as a step in the right direction; but, it is flawed in some respects. Readers might be wondering why I am not totally enthusiastic about a measure which introduces some measure of transparency and accountability into the operations of the NNPCL and the gas sector.
It is not because my views have changed about NNPCL. It is because two wrongs don’t make a right. I disagree with the EO9, not because NNPCL and PIA are perfect, but, because the cure, right now is worse than the disease.
The only known beneficiaries of E09, as it stands right now are governments; especially Governors now completing their second terms; now gifted more funds to mismanage as a send-off package.
Fortunately for the rest of us, the bonanza will not be as large as most people expect. EO9 is the right measure, at the wrong time and introduced the wrong way.
WHY EO9 MIGHT CREATE MORE PROBLEMS
“You burn the house to roast the pig. It was the only way mankind roasted pigs.”
Saul Bellow, 1915-2005, VBQ p 219.
Ruling parties in a democracy, facing another election have been known to introduce hastily conceived measures; which might not be ideal, just to win the next election.
Given that Nigeria has unofficially entered the next election campaigns, EO9, suspiciously, has probably been strongly influenced more by political considerations than long term national interest.
To begin with, it symbolises Tinubu’s approach to governance since 2023. A courageous policy is announced unexpectedly before all the ramifications have been fully considered and the consequences examined.
Talking tough first, thinking through later, invariably results in unwanted repercussions – as the nation painfully discovered after “Fuel subsidy is gone” was pronounced on May 29, 2023.
The country has not recovered from that sad experience.
Nothing demonstrates the error involved in acting before all the facts are in than the news report on March 3, 2026 — Revised Executive Order: FG adjusts oil revenue remittance framework.
NNPC to continue crude lifting, sales on behalf of govt.
Tinubu, unlike Trump, deserves a lot of credit for accepting that some mistakes have been made; and he had moved quickly to make corrections before grievous damage is done to the Nigerian economy which is undergoing strong, but fragile recovery.
Unfortunately, this is the age of internet; news travel as fast as the speed of light.
The announcement of E09 was brought to my attention by a friend in the US, an investor in global oil and gas sector.
His statement was chilling. “A lot of investors are going to place on shelf ideas about investing in the Nigerian oil and gas sector for quite a while after this.”
Irrespective of what else might have been intended by EO9 as originally announced, driving away investors was certainly not one of them. It might take a while to reverse the damage done.
Follow me on Facebook @ J Biola Israe
TO BE CONTINUED
