How Iran war is testing Ruto’s foreign policies as Kenyans stare at a crisis

Kenya is facing a fresh diplomatic and economic test as war between the United States, Israel and Iran escalates, exposing the delicate balance in President William Ruto’s foreign affairs policy and leaving thousands of Kenyans in crisis across the Middle East.

The conflict, which has so far killed nearly 800 people, including Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has drawn in global powers and unsettled markets.

President Ruto appeared to back Kenya’s long-standing strategic allies, the United States and Israel, after condemning Iranian strikes on the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman, Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain. He did not mention the initial joint attack on Tehran.

The Ministry of Foreign and Diaspora Affairs later clarified that Kenya’s position was against further escalation of the war rather than support for any side.

However, the optics of Ruto’s remarks have complicated Kenya’s diplomatic posture in a region where it has deep labour and trade ties.

As global powers trade fire, the immediate burden is being carried by ordinary Kenyans stranded or working in the Middle East.

Ruto’s handball?

“About 500,000 Kenyans are currently in the Middle East,” Diaspora Affairs Principal Secretary Roseline Njogu said on a local TV station on Monday, March 2, 2026. She said about 100 Kenyans are in Iran and about 1,000 in Israel.

According to Njogu, of the four million Kenyans living abroad, roughly half a million are based in the Gulf and surrounding region. At least 300,000 are in Saudi Arabia, 70,000 in Qatar, between 60,000 and 80,000 in the UAE, about 4,000 to 5,000 in Oman and around 100 in Iran.

The Ministry has issued a travel advisory urging citizens to limit movement.

“Exercise extreme caution and avoid non-essential movement, especially near high-risk areas such as military facilities and crowded public spaces. Follow and comply with guidance issued by local security authorities,” it said.

The government say Kenya’s embassies are monitoring the situation and maintaining contact with host governments. Yet with airspace closures, missile exchanges and threats to shipping lanes, evacuation options remain uncertain.

The economic impact is already being felt at home.

Oil prices have climbed 13 per cent from Ksh9,403, a barrel before the war, to Ksh10, 588, a barrel, raising fears of another fuel-driven cost-of-living spike similar to that triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022.

Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi sought to reassure the country.

“We have scheduled imports for delivery up to the end of April 2026. And, therefore, as it stands, we are assured of security of supply,” he said in a statement.

“We are closely monitoring the fluid situation as it evolves, while engaging with our G-G suppliers for contingency planning.”

Still, Kenya remains a net importer of oil, making it vulnerable to global price shocks. Iran’s reported closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a channel through which about a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes, has rattled markets.

Blow to Kenya’s economy

At least five tankers have been damaged, two personnel killed, and more than 3,000 ships stranded in the Gulf.

Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi warned lawmakers that a prolonged conflict would strain Kenya’s fragile economy.

“It is expected that the war between the US and Israel on one side and Iran on the other side is likely to impact on us massively if it continues,” Mbadi told the National Assembly Committee on National Budget.

“So, if the war is going to extend longer than anticipated, it will obviously have a hit on our economy, and we must think on how to manoeuvre, just like during Covid-19.”

For Kenya, remittances are a key foreign exchange earner, supporting thousands of households. Any job losses, delayed salaries or forced returns would have deep social and economic consequences.

Trade flows are also at risk. Kenya exports fresh produce, horticultural goods and tea to parts of the Middle East. Aviation and maritime disruptions threaten supply chains, while talks on resuming tea exports to Iran after a previous trade dispute now hang in the balance.

Trade Cabinet Secretary Lee Kinyanjui said Kenya is pursuing market diversification to cushion against overreliance on one region.

“While we hope for a speedy resumption to normalcy, the reality of geopolitics remains unpredictable. It is for this reason that Kenya has actively pursued market diversification to cushion against overreliance on any one region,” he said.