Manyora: Ruto is likely to secure more votes from Mt Kenya than Nyanza

Seasoned political analyst Herman Manyora has stated that President William Ruto will secure more votes from Mt Kenya than from Luo Nyanza.

While speaking during an interview on his YouTube channel aired on Saturday, February 28, 2026, the outspoken analyst took a swipe at the 2022 General Election, where out of 2.2 million registered voters in Nyanza, only 1.4 million turned up to vote, with 700,000 failing to cast their ballots in the region.

Manyora argued that if the late former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, during one of his strongest bids in 2022, managed only a 60 per cent turnout in his own backyard, what would be the case for President Ruto, who is trying to inherit the late leader’s voting bloc in 2027.

“Luo Nyanza, I have said this, and I want to be on record. Ruto will get more votes from Mount Kenya than from Luo Nyanza. We had 2.1 million voters in 4 Luo Nyanza counties; only 700k turned up to vote.”

“At that time, Raila had his best shot. People knew they should turn out, but they didn’t. People who didn’t turn out for Raila, would they turn out for Ruto?

Manyora went on to predict trouble for Ruto, saying that even if the Nyanza region fully embraces the broad-based government, voter turnout in the 2027 polls may not reach 60 per cent.

ODM wrangles

He further cited another scenario: the wrangles within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), which have degenerated into the Linda Ground and Linda Mwananchi factions.

According to him, the Nairobi senator Edwin Sifuna-led Linda Mwananchi faction appears to be outshining its rival, the Oburu Odinga-led Linda Ground faction, despite lacking government backing.

According to Manyora, this could pull Nyanza supporters who are part of the broad-based arrangement toward the Sifuna camp, thereby reducing Ruto’s chances of scooping more votes from the lake region.

Manyora then shifted focus to the Mt Kenya region, which is made up of 10 counties, predicting that the President might scoop close to one million votes from Mt Kenya and the larger GEMA community, a figure he believes will be much higher than the approximately 700,000 votes he foresees Ruto getting from Luo Nyanza.

Kindiki’s deputy president slot

That, Manyora says, is why Deputy President Kithure Kindiki’s position will remain secure despite demands from ODM, where some leaders have insisted they will settle for nothing less than the deputy president’s seat. According to him, Kindiki’s position will be safe, and the president will retain him as his running mate in 2027.

ODM fragmentation

This comes at a time when ODM is preparing itself for 2027.

Recently, the party’s Central Management Committee (CMC) tasked Oburu Odinga to initiate structured pre-coalition talks with the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), a move that has caused jitters within ODM and split the party into two factions.

Siaya Governor James Orengo has come out to oppose the merger, saying it risks reducing ODM to a regional party.