Minerals are back in the news, with President Donald Trump announcing on Wednesday that he’d reached an agreement on a possible deal on Greenland that would include rights to rare earth minerals.
Critical and rare earth minerals underpin technologies propelling the clean energy transition, AI and advanced military hardware, among others, and their production is dominated by China.
It controls over 90% of the world’s output of refined rare earths and over 60% of rare earth mining production, according to the International Energy Agency.
Speaking to CNN last week at the Future Minerals Forum in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Abigail Hunter, executive director of the Minerals Center at SAFE (Securing America’s Future Energy), a nongovernment organisation, described China as “light years ahead” of the US, “through decades of strategic investments, state-backed projects and coordination with the private sector, and investing internationally.”
But now Saudi Arabia is growing its mineral sector, to reduce its economic dependence on oil and, according to analysts, increase its geopolitical influence.
Saudi claims it has $2.5 trillion in mineral reserves.
These include gold, zinc, copper and lithium, but also rare earth deposits, including dysprosium, terbium, neodymium and praseodymium, which are used in everything from electric cars and wind turbines to high-speed computing.
Saudi Arabia’s budget for exploratory mining increased 595% between 2021 and 2025, per S&P Global (though it is still modest by the standards of advanced mining nations like Canada and Australia).
Licensing new mining sites to domestic and international companies has gathered pace.
But exploration is one thing, end product is another.
“The reality is mining is a really long game,” said Hunter.
“It takes three to five years to build a processing plant. It can take up to 29 years in some jurisdictions.”
The nation is cutting red tape, reducing tax rates for mining investment and intends to spend big to catch up with established players.
At the Future Minerals Forum, state-owned mining company Maaden announced it would invest $110 billion in metals and mining over the next decade, including entering into international partnerships and attracting industry talent.
“We’re humble enough to realize we can’t do it alone,” said Maaden CEO Bob Wilt, speaking at the event.
The value of Saudi Arabia’s minerals still pales in comparison to the value of its oil (Saudi has the second largest proven reserves in the world). But there are other reasons the nation is investing in the sector.
Saudi’s Vision 2030 plan aims to diversify the country’s economy and names mining as a key pillar.
Its plan goes beyond just mining minerals and includes building out its supply chain for domestic industries — for example, the nation has set ambitious targets for electric vehicle manufacturing.
Experts say Saudi’s growing infrastructure could also position the country as a regional hub for refining critical minerals mined elsewhere.
“Looking to the Global South and partnering with African countries … logistically, it makes a lot of sense for us to be able to process more minerals here,” said Hunter.
Saudi Arabia’s ambitions have drawn the interest of the US. In the past, after extracting its own heavy rare earths, the US has sent material to China for refining.
Last year, China tightened export controls on heavy rare earths, many of which have military applications.
Last November, during a state visit to Washington, Saudi Arabia announced it would invest up to nearly $1 trillion in US infrastructure, technology and industry.
Part of that deal included a bilateral collaboration on minerals.
US company MP Materials (which is backed by the Pentagon) announced that it would partner with Maaden and the US Department of Defense to build a new refinery in Saudi Arabia, which would be 49% owned by MP Materials and the Department of Defense.
Melissa Sanderson, co-chair of the Critical Minerals Institute, a think tank, said that Saudi Arabia’s biggest asset as a processing hub is its “reliable quantities of energy,” along with the expertise of state-owned energy company Aramco, which could develop improved refining methodologies, “potentially displacing China as a lower-cost, more environmentally friendly processor,” she speculated.
Its environmental credentials remain to be seen.
Saudi Arabia was among a group of resource-rich countries who at the recent United Nations Environment Assembly opposed part of a draft resolution of a treaty seeking greater supply chain transparency and to limit the environmental harm of mining.
Sanderson indicated that its transition to a mining hub may not all be smooth sailing.
Instability in the Middle East remains a challenge, along with a mixed bag of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and African nations with mineral wealth.
That said, the kingdom could turn to Central Asian countries with their own deposits, where Aramco has longstanding relationships, she said.
“In many ways, the economic transformations underway (in Saudi Arabia) are designed more to elevate the political standing of the country … (to) an essential player — a pivot point, if you will — in a geopolitical scenario,” said Sanderson.
“This is not a game about immediate return,” she added.
“This is a strategy about long-term power and long-term influence and long-term gain.”
