Aug. 15 (UPI) — Many eyes are on Tropical Rainstorm Fred as it crawls toward Florida, but AccuWeather forecasters have also been watching another emerging tropical threat in the Atlantic. The system strengthened enough to be named Tropical Storm Grace by the National Hurricane Center early Saturday morning.
As of 8 a.m. EDT Sunday, it was about 55 miles southwest of St. Croix and about 100 miles south-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, moving to the west-northwest at 16 mph. The system was packing 40 mph sustained winds.
Tropical storm warnings have gone into effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra and the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Samana. Tropical storm watches are in effect for the north coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to Samana and the entire coast of Haiti.
In anticipation of Grace’s impacts early in the week, Puerto Rican Gov. Pedro Pierluisi announced in a press conference that the island’s National Guard was standing by to assist residents during the storm, in addition to establishing storm shelters. Pierluisi also postponed the start of public school classes until Wednesday.
As of 8 a.m. EDT, Fred regained tropical storm status over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Reports based on reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft.
Fred was 165 miles west-northwest of the Dry Tortugas and about 390 miles south-southeast of Pensacola, Fla. It was moving north-northwest at 8 p.m. with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Alabama/Florida border to Ochlockonee, Fla.
Gradual strengthening expected while it moves over the Gulf of Mexico until it makes landfall.
AccuWeather forecasters predict Grace will continue to move westward over the next several days, following a roughly similar path that Fred did in its early stages of development. However, some atmospheric factors have the potential to cause this new storm to track somewhat differently to the path Fred has taken through the Caribbean.
Like Fred, Grace is anticipated to encounter some obstacles that could limit its ability to strengthen, forecasters say.
“Grace is embedded within an area of drier air and has some African dust to its north and west which is working to slow development,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.
Wind shear is also expected to increase early this week as the system tracks towards the Bahamas, southwestern Atlantic Ocean or near the northern Caribbean Sea.
The strongest wind gusts with Grace are likely to target the U.S. and British Virgin Islands as well as Puerto Rico on Sunday. It is in this area that the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 80 mph is most likely. Elsewhere across the Caribbean, wind gusts of 40-60 mph are expected from Grace.
The developing storm looks to be a significant rain producer, according to forecasters, as it swirls over the Caribbean into the week. Islands like Puerto Rico could see 4-8 inches of rain and some locally higher amounts near the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 12 inches.
The heavy, tropical rainfall is also forecast to impact southwestern Haiti, which will be recovering from a strong 7.2 earthquake that hit near Saint-Louis Du Sud on Saturday morning.
Buildings collapsed during the earthquake and rain and wind from Grace could complicate rescue and cleanup efforts through the first part of the week.
Many of these locations just got drenched with several inches of rainfall from Fred a few days ago.
Next in line for impacts would be the southeastern United States, but any impacts will depend on a host of factors that AccuWeather forecasters are continuing to monitor.
Grace is expected to bring impacts to the U.S. by the end of this week if it maintains organization.
“Indications point towards Grace tracking slightly farther to the north compared to Fred, so places like the U.S. and the British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico could endure greater impacts compared to Fred,” Douty said.
This more northward path would keep the storm away from the mountainous and larger islands of the northern Caribbean. With a potential track over more open water, there might be more opportunity for Grace to strengthen at a much faster pace when compared to Fred most recently and Elsa during early July.