Leading racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below…
Andrew has been in typically good form this week and has six selections at Ascot, Navan, York and Salisbury on Super Saturday, July 9th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
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ASCOT 1.50
BERKSHIRE PHANTOM (system – Andrew Balding second-time-out 2yos, beaten less than ten lengths on debut)
My original ‘Andrew Balding second-time-out 2yos’ system simply involved backed all those who ran second, third or fourth on their debuts. I later amended that to include any beaten horse who ran withing ten lengths of the winner. This angle has thrown up 82 bets from 339 selections (24.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £51.12. BERKSHIRE PHANTOM blew the start and ran green when a modest fourth at Salisbury on his debut and only just missed out on finishing second to seven-length winner Minnetonka. He’ll know more today, and his high draw is likely to be advantageous.
NAVAN 2.47
HILLTOP GOLD (system – Havana Gold, 5f, turf)
I took a chance on HILLTOP GOLD in this column when he was 50-1 for his debut at Down Royal last month and he ran with great credit to finish a 33-1 fifth of 11. He followed that with a 13-2 runner-up effort at Bellewstown when again tipped in this column (at 20-1) and he can break his duck today. His sire, Havana Gold, has a great overall record with his progeny over 5f on turf – 25 of the 169 qualifiers have won for a profit of £37.75.
NAVAN 4.32
JAWHARY (system – switchers, ex-Owen Burrows)
Horses who leave the care of Owen Burrows have a good record at the first time of asking for their new handlers, landing 11 of their 68 starts for a profit of £41.75. JAWHARY, widely available at 20-1 at the time of writing, looks worth chancing on his first start for Matthew Smith.
YORK 5.15
RUNNINWILD (system – Fountain Of Youth, turf, very recent run)
Backing all progeny of the sire Fountain Of Youth on turf, provided they had raced between one and 15 days ago would have returned a huge profit of £308.25 to a £1 level stake at SP. RUNNINWILD contributed most of the profit with wins at 200-1 and 50-1 and is taken to make all, despite a nagging doubt about his very high draw.
SALISBURY 6.15
MAJESTIC NEWLAW (system – New Bay, 2yos, turf, 7f+)
Backing all two-year-old progeny of the sire New Bay on turf, over trips of 7f or further, would have found 25 winners from 99 bets for a profit of £47.45 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 13.42). MAJESTIC NEWLAW could be worth chancing on his racecourse debut.
SALISBURY 7.15
SOUS LES ETOILES (system – raced freely when winning last time out)
Since the beginning of May 2016, backing any last-time-out winner who was described as having ‘raced freely’ would have found 31 winners from 98 bets for a profit of £39.60. Ideal Guest (7-4) and Caius Chorister (8-15) have already been successful on this angle this week and SOUS LES ETOILES can get the treble up.
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