Ghana’s strong external position is being bolstered by a surge in gold prices, but the windfall could prove fragile if escalating conflict in the Middle East drives up energy costs and disrupts global trade, the World Bank has warned.
The Bank, in its 10th Ghana Economic Update, said historically high gold prices had helped push Ghana’s gross international reserves to $13.8 billion at the end of 2025 and were supporting a projected current account surplus of 6.2 percent of gross domestic product in 2026.
But the improved external position comes against a deteriorating global backdrop, with the World Bank warning that renewed shocks to energy markets could expose Ghana’s dependence on commodity exports and fuel imports.
The report, titled “Reset for Growth: Sustaining Macroeconomic Recovery and Unlocking Transport for Transformation”, draws on the Bank’s June 2026 Global Economic Prospects, which projects global growth to slow to 2.5 percent in 2026 — its weakest pace since the Covid-19 pandemic.
The slowdown is being driven in part by higher energy prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East, the Bank said.
In a severe scenario involving deeper energy supply disruptions and financial stress, global growth could fall to 1.3 percent.
“A global economy absorbing another major shock” would create a difficult environment for Ghana, the Bank said, as higher gold prices boost reserves while rising energy costs increase the country’s fuel import bill.
Although higher oil and gold prices could increase export earnings and fiscal revenues, the overall impact on Ghana would likely be negative, according to the report.
Higher oil and gas prices would raise production costs, squeeze household incomes and increase transport and utility costs.
They could also weaken Ghana’s current account by making fuel imports more expensive, potentially offsetting gains from higher gold export receipts.
The risks would be greater if the conflict disrupted international trading and settlement channels, the Bank said.
Ghana’s economic growth is also expected to moderate to 4.8 percent in 2026, from 6.0 percent in 2025, as the effects of macroeconomic adjustment begin to taper off, oil and gas production weakens and external pressures persist.
The World Bank cautioned the government against treating the current commodity windfall as a permanent source of fiscal space.
Turning temporary gains from high commodity prices into long-term spending commitments could leave Ghana vulnerable if global prices reverse, it said.
The Bank instead urged Ghana to use the period of improved external conditions to strengthen its resilience through greater competitiveness and stronger macroeconomic management.
It also called for close coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities under the Ghana Accelerated National Reserve Accumulation Programme to manage the expansion of base money and prevent renewed inflationary pressures.
Inflation fell sharply to 3.2 percent in March 2026, from 54 percent in 2022, and the Bank stressed the need to keep price growth sustainably within the Bank of Ghana’s target band of 8 percent, plus or minus two percentage points.
The report’s warning highlights a central vulnerability in Ghana’s recovery: while the country is benefiting from a gold-price boom, it remains exposed to shocks in the energy market.
For policymakers, the challenge is to convert the temporary improvement in reserves and export earnings into lasting economic resilience before external conditions turn less favourable.
