Aspen chief executive Stephen Saad disclosed the latest market estimate in an interview with Reuters following the pharmaceutical company’s annual results.
The market was valued at approximately R2.2 billion earlier in 2026, indicating rapid growth in demand for GLP-1 medicines, which can regulate blood sugar, reduce appetite and support substantial weight loss.
Aspen distributes Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro in South Africa. The company said demand for the medicine contributed to a 5% increase in commercial-pharmaceutical revenue to R25.4 billion during its latest financial year.
However, not every Mounjaro sale should be classified as a weight-loss prescription.
Mounjaro contains tirzepatide and is registered in South Africa for treating type 2 diabetes. Doctors can prescribe medicines outside their approved indication, but that is different from formal regulatory approval for obesity treatment.
Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic contains semaglutide and is also primarily a diabetes medicine. Wegovy uses the same active ingredient but is specifically registered for chronic weight management.
Aspen prepares a generic semaglutide product
Aspen plans to introduce a generic semaglutide medicine in markets including South Africa, Canada, parts of Latin America and the Middle East.
The prospective product would contain the same active ingredient as Ozempic, but it would not be Ozempic and should not be described as the Novo Nordisk medicine.
Aspen intends initially to source products from third-party manufacturers, including Dr Reddy’s in Canada, while developing its wider supply arrangements.
The medicine must receive approval from regulators in each country before it can be sold.
South Africa’s health-products regulator has been reviewing 12 applications for generic semaglutide products following the expiry of Novo Nordisk’s relevant local patent.
India’s Sun Pharma has already secured approval for a generic product, meaning Aspen would face competition if its own planned medicine receives authorisation.
Generic competition could eventually reduce prices, but lower costs cannot yet be guaranteed. Aspen has not disclosed what it intends to charge.
The final price will depend on manufacturing costs, injector devices, distribution and whether medical schemes agree to cover the treatment.
Affordability remains a major obstacle
The rapid market growth reflects South Africa’s high levels of diabetes, excess weight and obesity. It also exposes a sharp affordability divide.
Novo Nordisk launched Wegovy in South Africa in 2025, intensifying its competition with Mounjaro. However, many patients pay for GLP-1 medicines themselves, making continuous treatment unaffordable for lower-income consumers.
The popularity of the drugs has also encouraged the sale of unregistered and compounded copies.
The regulator warned doctors, pharmacists and other healthcare professionals against prescribing, producing or selling unregistered products.
Consumers must therefore distinguish between an approved generic medicine and a compounded or illegally marketed copy that has not passed the same regulatory review.
For Aspen, the opportunity is unusual. The company can earn revenue from distributing Mounjaro while preparing a competing semaglutide medicine of its own.
For consumers, the more important question is whether additional competition will reduce monthly treatment costs.
Aspen has not disclosed its proposed price, South African approval timetable or launch date. The possibility of a more affordable alternative therefore remains a prospect, not a promise.
