From Kibaki to Kindiki: Tharaka Nithi and the making of new Mt Kenya East power matrix

The constituency was then known as Nithi, which was split into Chuka/Igambang’ombe and Maara after the promulgation of the 2010 Constitution.

The 95,693 votes from Nithi accounted for 78.8 per cent of cast votes in a constituency which had 123,996 registered voters, with claims that the constituency cast an additional 31,567 votes for Mr Kibaki, who won with 4,584,721 votes against Mr Odinga’s 4,352,993 votes.

The election sparked controversy, resulting in the 2007/2008 post-election violence in which at least 1,100 people were killed while over 600,000 were displaced.

Twenty years later, ahead of a crucial General Election and with political temperatures already rising, Tharaka Nithi is in the eye of a storm, and Deputy President Kithure Kindiki is the focal point.

With a vicious fight for control of the huge Mt Kenya voting bloc, Tharaka Nithi is once again the powerhouse in the country’s political matrix, with Dr Ruto’s choice of running mate likely to be a major factor in the outcome of the August 10, 2027, presidential election.

ODM, now led by Mr Odinga’s brother, Dr Oburu Oginga, has laid claim to the running mate position as it enters into a pre-election pact with President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA), sparking a storm, with local leaders declaring that Prof Kindiki will not move an inch.

In this defence, they have been joined by a number of leaders, including Public Service Cabinet Secretary Geoffrey Ruku, Meru Governor Isaac Mutuma and Lands Cabinet Secretary Alice Wahome, among others.

Prof Kindiki recently pronounced himself on the issue, saying that although several politicians have been fronted as Dr Ruto’s running mates in 2027, he would not budge.

“We will not move. You cannot build a house, furnish it and instead of enjoying you run away. We’re going nowhere,” he said.

Governor Muthomi Njuki has been vocal in defending the DP, going to the extent of saying they were willing to donate Prof Kindiki to ODM.

“If ODM is serious with their demand, we have no problem donating our son, he joins ODM so long as he retains the position,” Mr Njuki told residents.

On Thursday, August 27, Mr Njuki held a public rally at Cheera Market in Chuka/Igambang’ombe Constituency, in an event intended “to cement Prof Kindiki’s support in the home county as the base for his national politics.”

It is in this charged environment that the governor’s seat will be contested, pitting Tharaka MP Gitonga Murugara, his Maara counterpart Mr Kareke Mbiuki, former Chuka University Vice Chancellor Prof Erastus Njoka and Woman Representative Ms Susan Muindu.

While Mr Murugara and Mr Mbiuki will square it out for the UDA ticket in party primaries, Prof Njoka says he has his vehicle, which he will announce at an appropriate time, while Ms Muindu will run on Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri’s The Service Party (TSP), of which she is the deputy party leader.

With Mr Njuki serving his second and last term, the race is wide open. But the governor, who is said to have an eye on the Senate seat, although he has not publicly declared his intention, is likely to influence who becomes his successor.

That Prof Kindiki is a major factor in this race is not in doubt, since as the DP, he commands such huge clout that the aspirant who wins the UDA ticket is bound to immensely benefit from state backing.

But this depends on whether President Ruto retains him as his running mate, and this is where the stakes are higher because the Mt Kenya political matrix has been complicated by the one term and Two term politics.

After impeachment in October 2024, Rigathi Gachagua launched his Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) and declared that his singular objective is to make his former boss a one-term President.

He has since aggressively marketed his party and appears headed to lock Dr Ruto from the region that overwhelmingly supported him in 2022.

Prof Kindiki is engaged in such a vicious supremacy battle with Mr Gachagua for control of the Mt Kenya region that the fight is now bare-knuckle.

While Mr Gachagua has accused his former boss of using Prof Kindiki and Mr Ruku to divide the huge voting bloc, Prof Kindiki has pushed back, maintaining that he is for a united mountain. Mr Ruku leads the ‘cutting the mountain into East and West’ campaign, with observers saying he is most likely speaking for his ‘masters’.

Mt Kenya East comprises Embu, Tharaka Nithi and Meru counties, while Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Murang’a, Nyandarua and parts of Laikipia are in Mt Kenya West. With most Ruto critics coming from the West, Mr Ruku contends that by mobilising the East, he will put into Mr Ruto’s basket at least three million votes, including parts of Isiolo County.

But for Prof Kindiki, it’s even more worrying that the Wantam (one term) undercurrent is gathering momentum in his own backyard, where the ground appears to be shifting. With Prof Kindiki coming from the county, one would expect total support for the ruling coalition, Kenya Kwanza.

However, the numerous forums he has held at his Irunduni home with the aim of consolidating Mt Kenya East appear not to have had the desired effect, with political pundits saying there is still a lot of work to be done.

“President Ruto will most likely retain Prof Kindiki in 2027, but for this to happen, he should demonstrate that he will mobilise a sizeable chunk of votes from not only Mt Kenya East but also West,” said Prof Gitile Naituli, a political analyst and lecturer at Multimedia University of Kenya.

What has come to haunt Prof Kindiki is that early this year, he committed to personally be responsible for the delivery of projects. But as politicians race against time, with less than a year to the elections, they are growing impatient with the slow pace of project implementation.

For instance, Mr Mbiuki has on several occasions spoken about the frustrations leaders are encountering when they chant “Tutam” (two term), citing failure by the government to fulfil promises.

“There are several projects, including roads, that we were promised and for five years, we have been waiting for the delivery in vain. The DP had told us to follow up with him, but without them being completed, it is hard to keep singing this song. It must be clear that we will keep pushing for development so that our people can benefit from the government they put into power,” Mr Mbiuki said recently during a meeting in his Maara constituency.

Another project that is causing jitters is the Sh7 billion Nithi Bridge realignment, which, despite several promises by President Ruto himself, has not kicked off yet. While the contractor is on site, affected landowners are yet to be compensated. The government had proposed early entry into the site and asked landowners to vacate and allow the contractor to start works, but they refused.

All the aspirants agree that the government should first compensate the affected persons before the project kicks off.

The Tharaka Nithi governor race is further complicated by sub-tribal politics, with the county comprising the Mwimbi, Chuka and Tharaka sub-tribes. In 2013, Samuel Ragwa from Mwimbi (Maara) was the governor, while Mr Njuki comes from Chuka.

In the 2022 General Election, the number of registered voters stood at 231,932, with Chuka/Igambang’ombe Constituency having 84,674, Tharaka 74,010 and Maara 73,248 voters.

There are sentiments that Tharaka should this time be allowed to “taste power”, even as opponents of this prism dismiss it as tribal talk.

Mr Murugara and Ms Muindu hail from Tharaka, Mr Njoka from Chuka, while Mr Mbiuki is from Maara.

So charged is this environment that Mr Njuki, who appears to support Mr Mbiuki, has come out strongly against the governor coming from Chuka, in apparent opposition to Mr Njoka’s bid.

“From what I am hearing, the people of Chuka cannot be serious in demanding the seat after 10 years at the top. The people of Tharaka and Maara supported us for 10 years, let us not be selfish. Let’s give others a chance,” he told residents of Chuka recently.

Mr Murugara, a two-term MP, says he will seek to unite the county, where he claims there is a scheme to deny Tharaka Constituency a chance to produce the governor.

“My focus will be to ensure there is equity and balanced distribution of resources in all the 15 wards. I will make heavy investments in health, roads and agriculture and provide water for all residents,” Mr Murugara said.

Mr Mbiuki, the last Nithi MP, believes he is the most qualified to take over after Mr Njuki, flaunting his 20 years of experience as MP for Maara, during which time he believes he has come to understand the needs of Tharaka Nithi residents more than any other aspirant.

“To promote value addition, my administration will support the private sector and cooperatives and set up milk processors and other factories for value addition in coffee, tea and macadamia. And water provision,” he added.

Mr Mbiuki and Mr Murugara, both in UDA, are expected to flex muscles in primaries to decide who flies the party flag. But there is also a possibility of boardroom negotiations aimed at preventing a fallout within the ruling party, in which it is not clear who between them could be prevailed upon to give way.

Having worked as a ward administrator until 2017, when she was elected Marimanti Ward MCA and won the Woman Rep seat in 2022, Ms Muindu says she knows the needs of the people of Tharaka Nithi.

“I understand what ails the county more than anyone else because I have worked at the grassroots level, coordinating projects and talking to village administrators. I am sure the people of Tharaka Nithi will elect me to manage the affairs of the county, and I assure that I will not let them down,” Ms Muindu said.

Mr Njoka, who ran against Mr Njuki in 2022 on a Jubilee Party ticket and came second, says his development track record as the founder of Chuka University, alongside its Igembe Campus in Meru County and Tharaka University, is proof that he is capable of running the county.

“My record at Chuka University speaks for itself because I was able to transform the institution into what it is today, and even gave birth to Tharaka University and the Igembe Campus in Meru County. The challenge we have in Tharaka Nithi is lack of proper management of resources, and this is where I come in,” he said.

All the aspirants agree that the county, most of which is semi-arid, needs a transformative leader who will not only harness the agricultural resources in the upper part of the county but also ensure there is provision of water in the lower semi-arid areas to benefit residents.

Follow our WhatsApp channel for breaking news updates and more stories like this.