Ghana’s cocoa sector continued to expand in the first quarter of 2026, but at a much slower pace than the strong rebound recorded a year earlier.
According to Provisional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates released by the Ghana Statistical Service, cocoa output grew by 3.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, sharply down from the 23.1% growth recorded during the same period in 2025.
The data raises fresh questions about the sustainability of the industry’s recovery.
The slowdown also reduced cocoa’s contribution to overall economic growth. The crop contributed just 0.9 percentage points to GDP growth in the first quarter, compared with 5.0 percentage points a year earlier, even as its share of the economy edged up to 1.9% from 1.4%.
The figures suggest the cocoa industry has entered a more moderate growth phase after rebounding strongly in 2025 from the severe contraction experienced throughout much of 2024.
Cocoa production contracted for four consecutive quarters in 2024, recording declines of 27.1%, 21.4%, 29.9% and 12.8% before staging a recovery in 2025.
Growth accelerated to 23.1% in the first quarter of 2025, remained strong at 14.2% and 28.1% in the second and third quarters, before easing to 3.0% in the final quarter of the year and 3.8% in the opening quarter of 2026.
The moderation in cocoa growth also contributed to a broader slowdown in the agriculture sector, which expanded by 4.0% in the first quarter of 2026 compared with 6.6% a year earlier.
Crop production as a whole grew 4.7%, down from 6.7% in the corresponding period of 2025, while forestry rebounded strongly to offset a sharp contraction in fishing.
Although agriculture remained an important pillar of the economy, contributing 13.5% to overall GDP growth and accounting for 21.4% of GDP during the quarter, the latest figures indicate that cocoa is no longer providing the outsized boost that helped lift the sector’s performance last year.
Meanwhile, cocoa prices have rebounded on the international market, with futures climbing back to nearly US$5,000 per tonne after falling below US$4,000 earlier this year.
