Nigeria’s financial system set for N13.79trn liquidity inflow November 2026

Spread the word Nigeria’s financial system is projected to receive N13.79 trillion in liquidity inflows in November 2026, driven mainly by Open Market Operations (OMO) maturities, government allocations and short-term securities repayments.

The projection, in the October 2026 market report of the Financial Markets Dealers Association (FMDA), is 2.16 per cent above October’s N13.495 trillion.

The inflows come as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) slows its liquidity absorption, a shift that lifted banking system liquidity by 56.75 per cent to N7.373 trillion in October from N4.703 trillion in September.

OMO maturities are expected to account for N8.927 trillion, or 64.75 per cent of November inflows. 

Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) disbursements are put at N2.50 trillion (18.13 per cent), while Treasury Bills maturities are projected at N1.919 trillion (13.92 per cent). Together, the three make up about 96.8 per cent of the total.

Other inflows include N323.154 billion in Federal Government bond coupons, N68.032 billion in corporate bond coupons and N50.016 billion in commercial paper maturities. A $105.94 million Eurobond coupon due in November was excluded from the naira projection.

Treasury Bills maturities will record the biggest monthly rise, up 46.49 per cent, or N609 billion, from N1.310 trillion. OMO maturities are projected to fall 1.37 per cent and Federal Government bond coupons 49.08 per cent, while corporate bond coupons are expected to jump 213.28 per cent.

In October, the CBN allotted N6.182 trillion in fresh OMO securities against N9.051 trillion in maturities, a net repayment of about N2.87 trillion. In September, it sold N17.51 trillion against N10.89 trillion in maturities, withdrawing about N6.62 trillion. 

The moderation deepened late in October as the apex bank cut allotments at its final OMO auction, while Treasury Bills auctions saw substantial unfilled subscriptions, indicating selective acceptance of bids.

Analysts say the inflows could strengthen liquidity and sustain demand for short-term instruments if the CBN keeps its selective approach. They cautioned, however, that N13.79 trillion should not be read as an equivalent rise in system liquidity, as fresh issuance and government cash movements could absorb much of it. 

Sustained surpluses could intensify competition for instruments and push short-term yields down, though a return to aggressive OMO issuance could reverse this.

Despite higher liquidity, interbank rates were stable in October. The Nigeria Overnight Financing Rate closed unchanged at 20.00 per cent, while the overnight rate fell five basis points to 20.38 per cent. The Monetary Policy Rate stayed at 23.00 per cent after September’s 350-basis-point cut.

The FMDA expects comfortable liquidity if the CBN sustains selective allotments, and advised banks to keep adequate liquidity buffers given its continued reliance on OMO.