Ghana’s heat could intensify as El Niño strengthens: Here’s what to expect and how to stay safe

Ghanaians could face even hotter weather in the coming months as a very strong El Niño weather pattern continues to develop, with the Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet) warning of a hotter and drier dry season across much of the country.

Heard about the EL NIÑO Event? Here’s what to expect for Ghana – implications for Ghana’s into the first half of 2027, expected weather patterns and precautionary measures Click on the link to access the full Advisory: https://t.co/wZ4S2lcpfR #GMet #PressRelease #ElNino https://t.co/FrZaD97vz0

The warning comes as some parts of Ghana continue to experience hot weather. In its forecast for Saturday, October 31, 2026, GMet projected afternoon temperatures of up to 38°C in Bolgatanga, 36°C in Tamale and 34°C in Kumasi. Coastal towns, including Accra, were expected to record temperatures of around 27°C in the evening.

However, the bigger concern is what could happen in the coming months.

In a technical report from Gmet, on October 30, 2026, and revised following a scientific review by its Governing Board on October 27, GMet said the dry season could become hotter and drier from late November, with the highest risk of heat stress expected between February and April 2027.

The agency also warned of possible water shortages, bushfires and increased dust during the dry season.

Here is what GMet’s warning means, why El Niño matters, what Ghanaians should expect and the precautions people can take.

An illustration of El Nino El Niño is a natural climate pattern that occurs when the surface water in parts of the Pacific Ocean, particularly around the central and eastern equator, becomes warmer than normal for a period.

This unusual warming affects wind movements and rainfall patterns around the world. It can influence weather conditions in countries thousands of kilometres away, including those in West Africa.

El Niño is a change in the temperature of the Pacific Ocean that can affect how much rain falls and how hot or cold certain parts of the world become.

The warming affects the atmosphere and changes normal weather patterns in different regions. There is also La Niña, which occurs when the same parts of the Pacific Ocean become cooler than normal.

According to GMet, El Niño conditions were confirmed in June 2026 and have continued to strengthen. The agency, relying on projections from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC), said there is about a 96 per cent chance that the event will reach very strong intensity between November 2026 and January 2027.

The event is expected to reach its peak between October 2026 and January 2027 before gradually weakening during the first half of 2027. This means its effects could continue to influence weather conditions in Ghana into the early months of 2027.

Heat-related Illnesses | Heat | CDC El Niño is one of the factors that can contribute to warmer conditions in Ghana. During El Niño years, reduced rainfall and fewer clouds in some areas can allow more sunlight to heat the land, leading to higher temperatures.

GMet’s October to December 2026 outlook predicts warmer-than-average temperatures across most parts of Ghana, although some areas could experience different conditions. The agency, however, cautions that El Niño should not be blamed for all the heat.

According to its report, long-term human-caused warming is the main driver of recent extreme heat in West Africa, while El Niño adds to the risk. This means the hot conditions being experienced should be understood within the wider issue of rising global temperatures, rather than being attributed to El Niño alone.

GMet identifies February to April 2027 as the period when heat stress is likely to be highest, particularly in northern Ghana. February to April is already the hottest period of the year in the northern parts of the country. The developing El Niño could add to the existing heat during this period.

This could make everyday activities, especially outdoor work, more difficult for people who spend long hours under the sun. Older people, young children, outdoor workers, people with long-term illnesses and those living in crowded urban homes are among the groups GMet says require particular attention.

GMet expects below-normal rainfall in many parts of the country during the remaining months of 2026. This means some areas could receive less rain than they normally would during this period. However, not every part of Ghana will experience drought.

The agency says some areas could still receive above-normal rainfall. Localised heavy rainfall and flooding also remain possible, even when the overall amount of rain expected across the country is below normal. The 2027 rainy seasons are also uncertain.

Harmattan Harmattan is the dry season characterised by dry winds, lower humidity and dust blowing across parts of Ghana, particularly the northern and middle belts. It usually occurs from late November to March.

With GMet projecting below-normal rainfall across much of the country, the dry conditions could increase the risk of dust exposure, bushfires, water stress and disruption to farming activities.

However, GMet explains that El Niño’s direct influence on the strength of Harmattan is not clearly established. Other weather systems, particularly those over the Sahara and North Atlantic, play a greater role in determining how strong and long the Harmattan will be.

The combination of dry conditions, dust and heat could also affect air quality and respiratory health.

As temperatures rise, people are encouraged to take steps to protect themselves from heat-related illnesses. The World Health Organisation (WHO) recommends several measures to help people stay safe during periods of extreme heat.

Drink enough safe water throughout the day, even when you do not feel thirsty. This helps replace fluids lost through sweating.

Where possible, avoid strenuous activities during the hottest part of the day. People who work outdoors should take regular breaks in shaded areas.

How to whiten clothes with aspirin [Sweet Home] Wear loose-fitting and lightweight clothing to help your body stay cool.

Stay in shaded or well-ventilated places. Taking cool showers or using a damp cloth to cool the skin can also help.

Unlocking Potential Early: Rebalancing Public Spending for Children in Ghana 2026 Image credit: UNICEF/Noorani/2024 A 112-year-old woman says smoking 30 cigarettes a day is a secret to long life. Batuli Lamichhane, born in March 1903, began smoking at age 17. Young children, older adults and people with existing health conditions are more vulnerable to extreme heat. Check on them regularly and make sure they have access to drinking water and a cool place to rest.

Temperatures inside parked vehicles can rise quickly, making them dangerous for children.

Spending too much time in hot conditions can cause the body to overheat. Some common warning signs include headaches, dizziness, nausea, weakness, excessive sweating and unusual tiredness.

Confusion, fainting, seizures or loss of consciousness could indicate a serious condition such as heatstroke, which is a medical emergency.

Anyone showing these serious symptoms needs urgent medical attention. The person should be moved to a cooler place and cooled while medical help is arranged.

GMet’s assessment points to a potentially hotter and drier period from late November 2026 to April 2027, with the greatest heat stress expected between February and April, especially in northern Ghana. The risks include increased heat exposure, dust, bushfires, pressure on water supplies and possible difficulties for farmers.

However, the agency stresses that these are climate risk projections, not guarantees that every predicted event will happen. The amount and timing of rainfall could still change depending on conditions in both the Pacific and Atlantic oceans.

GMet and the Ghana Health Service are expected to issue heat advisories based on agreed temperature and heat-stress thresholds, with particular attention to vulnerable groups.

Ghanaians are therefore encouraged to take the heat seriously, stay hydrated, reduce unnecessary exposure to the sun and follow official weather updates as the situation develops.