Kenya Met Blames Tropical Storm Agueda for Delayed Rains, Encourage Farmers To Prepare For Season

The Kenya Meteorological Department has explained how Tropical Storm Agueda is interfering with the expected October to December short rains, raising concerns among farmers and residents in areas experiencing delayed rainfall.

The delay has affected the normal progression of the rainy season, with some parts of the country recording showers while others continue to experience dry conditions. Farmers who depend on seasonal rainfall are particularly concerned about when to plant their crops.

According to Kenya Met, the situation is partly linked to changes in the movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a weather system that plays a major role in determining rainfall patterns across Kenya.

The system normally moves southwards across the Equator during the short-rains season, bringing moisture that supports rainfall in different parts of the country. However, weather systems developing over the Indian Ocean have affected its movement, contributing to the delayed onset of rains in some areas.

Tropical Storm Agueda is among the systems being monitored by meteorologists because its movement could influence weather conditions in the region.

The storm’s direction is considered important in determining how rainfall patterns may develop in the coming weeks. Depending on its movement, it could create conditions that favour rainfall or contribute to the continuation of dry conditions in some parts of Kenya.

Kenya Met has continued monitoring weather developments to provide updated forecasts as more information becomes available.

The department has also explained that isolated showers do not automatically mean the rainy season has started. To confirm the onset of rains, an area must receive at least 20 millimetres of rainfall over three consecutive days, followed by no dry spell lasting more than seven days during the subsequent three weeks.

Some areas, including parts of Marsabit, Mandera, Nyeri and Meru, have recorded significant rainfall, although the distribution has not been uniform across the country.

Kenya Met’s seasonal forecast indicated a 50 per cent probability of above-average rainfall during the October to December 2026 season. The forecast also gave a 35 per cent probability of near-average rainfall and a 15 per cent probability of below-average rainfall.

However, the projections do not mean all counties will experience similar rainfall amounts or that the rains will begin at the same time.

Farmers have been encouraged to prepare for the season and seek guidance from agricultural extension officers on suitable planting practices and crop varieties.

Meanwhile, meteorologists are also monitoring broader climate developments, including the possibility of a strong El Niño later in 2026, which could influence weather patterns in different regions.

Kenya Met is expected to continue issuing updates as the situation evolves, with the movement of Tropical Storm Agueda remaining an important factor in assessing the country’s short-rains season.

Link; https://nation.africa/kenya/climate/tropical-storm-agueda-is-interfering-with-rains-says-kenya-met-5642566?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=dn_social

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