Kenya Met Reveals Why El Niño Rains Are Delayed Despite Earlier Warnings

The Kenya Meteorological Service has explained why the expected October-to-December rains have been delayed in some parts of the country despite earlier forecasts of above-average rainfall.

According to Hannah Kimani, Director of Public Weather Services at Kenya Met, the delay is linked to tropical weather systems developing over the northern Indian Ocean. These systems temporarily slowed the southward movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which brings seasonal rainfall to Kenya.

The ITCZ normally moves southwards between October and December, bringing rain to different parts of the country. However, its movement has been disrupted, leaving some areas experiencing dry conditions during the expected rainy season.

Kimani noted that rainfall had already begun in some regions. Parts of western Kenya recorded an early onset in October, while coastal areas started receiving rain as early as September.

The situation has raised concerns among farmers and residents who had anticipated the return of consistent rainfall following earlier weather warnings.

Despite the delay, meteorologists have cautioned against assuming that the seasonal forecast has changed. A regional assessment published by the Kenya News Agency on October 16 indicated that above-average rainfall was still expected in many parts of the country.

Experts have also clarified that El Niño does not automatically translate into heavy rainfall everywhere. Conditions in the Indian Ocean, prevailing winds and other atmospheric systems also influence the timing and amount of rain Kenya receives.

Kenyans are therefore encouraged to continue following official weather updates as conditions evolve.

Farmers should consult local forecasts when planning planting activities, while residents in flood-prone areas should remain prepared for possible heavy rainfall once the rains become established.

The timing and distribution of rainfall may vary across counties, making regular updates from Kenya Met important throughout the season.

WINBIG-NEWS feedback-opera-news-app@opera.com